{ "schema_version": "2.6.0", "generated_at": "2026-09-11T23:23:02Z", "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11 23:23 UTC", "horizon_days": 10, "params": { "horizon_days": 10, "history_period": "1y", "bb_length": 20, "bb_mult": 2.0, "kc_length": 20, "kc_mult": 1.5, "atr_length": 14, "vol_lookback": 20, "percentile_lookback": 120 }, "universe": { "scanned": 29, "requested": 29, "source": "etf", "requested_source": "etf", "fallback": null, "etfs": [ "SPUS", "HLAL" ], "top": 30 }, "weights": { "values": { "compression": 0.29, "vol_room": 0.5, "squeeze": 0.21 }, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "source": "auto-calibrated" }, "counts": { "BUY_PREMIUM": 6, "STAND_ASIDE": 7, "SELL_PREMIUM": 2, "NO_DATA": 14 }, "screen": { "mode": "filter", "thresholds": { "max_debt_ratio": 0.33, "max_cash_ratio": 0.33, "max_receivables_ratio": null }, "earnings_checked": 30, "earnings_names": 30, "screened": 29, "flagged": [], "flagged_count": 0, "unknown": [], "unknown_count": 0 }, "long_dated": { "tickers": 15, "candidates": 65, "preferred": 12, "expiries": [ "2027-09-17" ], "target_days": 395 }, "top_actions": [ { "ticker": "AVGO", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "strategy": "Long Straddle", "headline": "AVGO: BUY premium — IV rank 12, cheap → Long Straddle", "detail": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 360 call; Buy 1× 2026-10-02 360 put — net debit $2,302.50 per spread", "confidence": 0.69 }, { "ticker": "CVX", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "strategy": "Bull Put Spread", "headline": "CVX: SELL premium — IV rank 76, rich → Bull Put Spread", "detail": "Sell 1× 2026-10-02 200 put; Buy 1× 2026-10-02 190 put — net credit $77.00 per spread", "confidence": 0.69 }, { "ticker": "XOM", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "strategy": "Bull Put Spread", "headline": "XOM: SELL premium — IV rank 72, rich → Bull Put Spread", "detail": "Sell 1× 2026-10-02 155 put; Buy 1× 2026-10-02 150 put — net credit $60.00 per spread", "confidence": 0.64 }, { "ticker": "INTC", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "strategy": "Long Straddle", "headline": "INTC: BUY premium — IV rank 27, cheap → Long Straddle", "detail": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 103 call; Buy 1× 2026-10-02 103 put — net debit $1,150.00 per spread", "confidence": 0.61 }, { "ticker": "GOOG", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "strategy": "Long Strangle", "headline": "GOOG: BUY premium — IV rank 40, fair → Long Strangle", "detail": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 355 call; Buy 1× 2026-10-02 320 put — net debit $565.00 per spread", "confidence": 0.6 } ], "reference": { "actions": { "BUY_PREMIUM": { "label": "Buy premium", "verb": "BUY", "tone": "buy", "blurb": "Options are cheap relative to how much this name actually moves. You want to be long optionality — pay a defined premium and let the move come to you." }, "SELL_PREMIUM": { "label": "Sell premium", "verb": "SELL", "tone": "sell", "blurb": "Options are rich relative to realized movement. You want to be the seller — collect the premium and let time decay work, with the risk defined by long wings." }, "NEUTRAL_INCOME": { "label": "Collect decay", "verb": "DECAY", "tone": "neutral", "blurb": "No cheap-or-rich edge outright, but the shape of the volatility curve pays you to own time in one expiry and sell it in another." }, "STAND_ASIDE": { "label": "Stand aside", "verb": "WAIT", "tone": "wait", "blurb": "Nothing here is mispriced enough to pay for the risk. No trade is a position." }, "NO_DATA": { "label": "Not priced", "verb": "—", "tone": "none", "blurb": "No option chain was read for this ticker in this run, so no premium call can be made." } }, "premium_states": { "cheap": { "label": "Cheap", "rule": "Low IV → BUY options", "detail": "Implied volatility sits at the low end of this name's own range and near or below what it actually realizes. Long premium: straddles, strangles, debit spreads." }, "fair": { "label": "Fair", "rule": "Mid IV → no volatility edge", "detail": "Options are priced about right. Any trade here has to come from the chart or the term structure, not from the level of volatility." }, "rich": { "label": "Rich", "rule": "High IV → SELL premium", "detail": "Implied volatility is high in its own range and well above realized. Short premium: credit spreads and iron condors, with defined risk." }, "unknown": { "label": "Unknown", "rule": "No IV read", "detail": "The option chain wasn't priced for this name this run." } }, "glossary": { "score": "Setup Score, 0–100: how coiled the chart is right now — compressed Bollinger bandwidth, low realized-vol percentile, and an active TTM squeeze. It says a move is loading. It says nothing about direction.", "iv_rank": "IV Rank, 0–100: where today's implied volatility sits between the low and the high of the trailing year. Under ~25 is cheap, over ~65 is rich. Free data has no implied-vol history, so this is ranked against the name's own realized-volatility range — a proxy that reads a little high, because implied vol carries a persistent premium over realized.", "iv_percentile": "The share of the trailing year's volatility readings that sit below today's implied volatility. Same proxy caveat as IV Rank.", "premium_score": "0–100 blend of IV rank (45%), the IV/HV risk premium (40%) and the term structure (15%). This is the number the buy-or-sell call is actually made on.", "iv_hv_ratio": "Implied volatility divided by realized. Around 1.1–1.2× is the normal risk premium; well above that is the market paying you to sell, well below it is a discount to buy.", "vrp": "Volatility risk premium: implied minus realized, in volatility points.", "implied_move_pct": "How far the option market is pricing this name to travel over the horizon, as a percentage of spot.", "hist_move_pct": "The same move estimated from realized volatility instead. The gap between the two is the edge.", "term_structure": "Front-expiry IV against a later one. Contango (later is pricier) is normal. Backwardation means the market expects something soon — it favours selling the front month or running a calendar.", "skew": "Out-of-the-money put IV minus call IV, in vol points. Fat put skew means the put side pays more to sell than the call side.", "liquidity": "How tradable the chain is, from the at-the-money bid/ask spread and open interest. Wide markets quietly cost more than the edge is worth, so thin names get simpler structures or none at all.", "pop": "Model probability of finishing in the profit zone: N(d₂) under a lognormal whose expected price is today's, at the chain's own implied volatility. Because the price rather than its logarithm is held flat, the median outcome sits slightly below spot — so the chance of finishing above spot is a little under half, and more so the longer the expiry. An estimate, not a guarantee; it also reads the volatility at the money rather than at each strike, and a high probability of a small win is not the same as a good trade.", "credit_to_width": "Credit collected divided by the width of the spread. Under ~20% you are being paid too little for the risk.", "em_pct": "One-sigma expected move over the horizon from realized volatility. Roughly 68% of outcomes land inside ±1σ, 95% inside ±2σ.", "squeeze": "The TTM squeeze: Bollinger Bands sitting inside the Keltner Channels. On means energy is building; fired means it just released, which is the actual entry trigger.", "lean": "A faint directional hint from squeeze momentum. A tiebreaker between two structures, never a reason to take a position.", "long_dated": "The ≈13-month expiry the Spreads tab is built on. It is whichever listed expiry sits closest to 395 days out, because exchanges list long-dated options on January cycles rather than on a rolling 13-month schedule — so the real number of days is always shown next to it.", "leaps_vega": "Over a year, the level of implied volatility moves a long-dated spread far more than time decay does. A 13-month debit spread is mostly a bet on direction and partly a bet on volatility rising; a 13-month credit spread earns its theta almost entirely in the final months.", "reward_to_risk": "Maximum profit divided by maximum loss — what the trade pays if it works, against what it costs if it does not.", "annualised_return": "The same reward-to-risk put on a yearly footing (× 365 ÷ days to expiry), so a thirteen-month spread can be compared with a monthly one. A 0.6× return over 409 days is not better than 0.3× over 30 days, because the monthly trade recycles the same capital twelve times. It assumes the position could be repeated, which is an assumption, not a forecast — and it says nothing about how likely either is to win. It reads n/a for a trade whose legs expire on different dates: the diagonal's maximum lands at its short leg's expiry rather than its own, so dividing by the long expiry understates it and dividing by the short one implies repeating a single assignment seventeen times a year. The structure earns by rolling that short leg, and no roll is counted in its maximum, so there is no honest yearly figure to give.", "risk_form": "What actually secures a position: a debit you have already paid, margin against a short option, or shares you already own. It decides how the trade can hurt you, which is a different question from how likely it is to win.", "earnings": "Calendar days to the next report. Inside the expiry, IV is elevated for a reason and collapses the morning after — that cuts both ways depending on which side you're on.", "debt_cash_ratio": "The balance-sheet screen: interest-bearing debt and cash as a share of market cap, both required under ~33%.", "screen": "The compliance verdict for the name: whether it passed the industry-exclusion screen and the balance-sheet ratios, and the reason if it did not. In `filter` mode a name that fails never reaches the scan; in `annotate` mode it does, carrying this flag — which is the only thing that tells it apart from a name that passed. An approximation from public fundamentals, not a certification: re-verify with a dedicated screener before trading." }, "playbook": { "long_straddle": "Buy the at-the-money call and the at-the-money put. You win if the move is big enough, either way; you lose if it sits still. The trade for cheap options in front of a coiled chart.", "long_strangle": "Buy an out-of-the-money call and an out-of-the-money put. Cheaper than a straddle and needs a bigger move to pay — the budget version of the same both-ways bet.", "bull_call_spread": "Buy a call, sell a higher one. A capped, cheaper bullish bet — the short leg pays for part of the long one.", "bear_put_spread": "Buy a put, sell a lower one. A capped, cheaper bearish bet.", "iron_condor": "Sell an out-of-the-money call spread and an out-of-the-money put spread. You collect premium and keep it if price stays between them. Defined risk on both sides.", "short_strangle": "Sell an out-of-the-money call and put with no wings. Collects more than a condor, but the loss is open-ended — margin-heavy, experts only.", "bull_put_spread": "Sell a put, buy a lower one. You collect credit and win if the stock stays above the short put — a bullish way to be short rich premium.", "bear_call_spread": "Sell a call, buy a higher one. You collect credit and win if the stock stays below the short call.", "calendar_spread": "Sell the near expiry, buy the same strike further out. Profits when the front decays faster than the back — the trade for an inverted term structure.", "covered_call": "Against shares you already own, sell a call above the price. Turns rich premium into income and caps your upside at the strike.", "stand_aside": "No edge worth paying for. The best trade is often none.", "shares_only": "Trade the underlying instead of options.", "no_data": "No usable option chain this run — nothing to price.", "leaps_bull_call": "Buy a call about 13 months out, sell a higher one in the same expiry. A bullish position with a year to be right and a cost you know on day one — the short leg pays for part of the long one and caps the win.", "leaps_bear_put": "Buy a long-dated put, sell a lower one. The same shape pointed down: a year of room for a thesis, at a defined cost.", "poor_mans_covered_call": "Buy a deep in-the-money call 13 months out as a cheaper stand-in for 100 shares, then sell a near-dated call against it and roll that short leg each month. Covered-call income on a fraction of the capital — and the long call, not stock, is what secures it.", "leaps_bull_put": "Sell a long-dated put well below the price, buy a lower one for protection. You collect the credit up front and keep it if the stock holds up — but the capital is committed for a year and the decay arrives mostly at the end.", "leaps_bear_call": "Sell a long-dated call well above the price, buy a higher one. The credit is yours if the stock stays under the short strike for the year." } }, "disclaimer": { "general": "Educational tool, not financial advice. Expected-move bands and probabilities are statistical estimates from past and implied volatility — not predictions. Option prices are last-known mids and will have moved; price every trade in your broker before placing it.", "risk": "Every position here can lose. A debit spread can expire worthless and take the whole premium with it; a credit spread can lose several times what it collected. Position sizes are computed against the risk budgets in config.yaml, not against your account or your tolerance for a losing year.", "method": "Indicators are computed without look-ahead: every value uses only data up to and including its own bar. IV rank and percentile are proxies ranked against realized-volatility history, because free data sources do not publish implied-volatility history." }, "signals": [ { "rank": 1, "ticker": "MU", "price": 975.26, "score": 94.5, "squeeze_on": true, "squeeze_days": 10, "squeeze_fired": false, "fired_dir": "", "bandwidth_pctile": 0.008, "hv_annual": 53.0, "hv_pctile": 0.05, "em_pct": 10.57, "horizon_days": 10, "down_1sigma": 872.21, "up_1sigma": 1078.31, "down_2sigma": 769.16, "up_2sigma": 1181.36, "lean": "Bullish", "note": "", "debt_ratio": 0.0057887224297999435, "cash_ratio": 0.023625178603048382, "earnings_in_days": 18, "implied_move_pct": 11.92, "vol_verdict": "fair", "iv_annual": 59.84, "iv_rank": 12.7, "premium_score": 35.1, "premium_state": "fair", "liquidity": "fair", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "strategy": "Long Strangle", "options": { "iv_annual": 59.84, "hv_annual": 53.0, "implied_move_pct": 11.92, "hist_move_pct": 10.57, "iv_rank": 12.7, "iv_percentile": 16.5, "vrp": 6.8, "iv_hv_ratio": 1.13, "verdict": "fair", "premium_score": 35.1, "premium_state": "fair", "term_slope": -0.009, "term_structure": "flat", "skew": -1.95, "skew_label": "balanced", "atm_spread_pct": 3.1, "atm_open_interest": 142, "liquidity": "fair", "expiry": "2026-10-02", "days_to_expiry": 21, "expiries": [ { "date": "2026-09-14", "dte": 3 }, { "date": "2026-09-16", "dte": 5 }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "dte": 7 }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "dte": 14 }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21 }, { "date": "2026-10-09", "dte": 28 }, { "date": "2026-10-16", "dte": 35 }, { "date": "2026-10-23", "dte": 42 }, { "date": "2026-11-20", "dte": 70 }, { "date": "2026-12-18", "dte": 98 }, { "date": "2027-01-15", "dte": 126 }, { "date": "2027-02-19", "dte": 161 } ], "long_expiry": "2027-09-17", "long_dte": 371, "long_iv": 61.15, "long_spread_pct": 4.5, "long_open_interest": 117, "long_liquidity": "fair" }, "recommendation": { "ticker": "MU", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "headline": "MU: BUY premium — IV rank 13, fair → Long Strangle", "detail": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 1080 call; Buy 1× 2026-10-02 870 put — net debit $3,987.50 per spread", "confidence": 0.52, "premium_state": "fair", "premium_score": 35.1, "bias": "bullish", "bias_strength": "weak", "plan": { "key": "long_strangle", "name": "Long Strangle", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "Cheap options plus a coiled chart — the budget version of the both-ways bet.", "playbook": "Buy an out-of-the-money call and an out-of-the-money put. Cheaper than a straddle and needs a bigger move to pay — the budget version of the same both-ways bet.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 1080.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 23.2, "bid": 21.2, "ask": 25.2, "iv": 61.71, "open_interest": 204, "label": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 1080 call" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 870.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 16.675, "bid": 15.95, "ask": 17.4, "iv": 59.51, "open_interest": 131, "label": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 870 put" } ], "expiry": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 3987.5, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": 3987.5, "breakevens": [ 830.12, 1119.88 ], "profit_zone": "outside", "pop": 0.297, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "close at +50% to +100% of the debit", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "be out with ~7 days to expiry — theta accelerates into the last week", "close_by_dte": 7 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 1000.0, "contracts": 0, "risk_per_spread": 3987.5, "total_risk": 0.0, "over_budget": true, "note": "One spread already risks $3,988, above the $1,000 budget. Narrow the wings, go further out of the money, or skip it." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, "alternatives": [ { "key": "long_straddle", "name": "Long Straddle", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "Options are cheap and the chart is coiled — pay for the move, either direction.", "playbook": "Buy the at-the-money call and the at-the-money put. You win if the move is big enough, either way; you lose if it sits still. The trade for cheap options in front of a coiled chart.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 975.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 58.925, "bid": 58.0, "ask": 59.85, "iv": 61.62, "open_interest": 142, "label": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 975 call" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 975.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 55.275, "bid": 53.0, "ask": 57.55, "iv": 58.06, "open_interest": 250, "label": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 975 put" } ], "expiry": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 11420.0, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": 11420.0, "breakevens": [ 860.8, 1089.2 ], "profit_zone": "outside", "pop": 0.412, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "close at +50% to +100% of the debit", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "be out with ~7 days to expiry — theta accelerates into the last week", "close_by_dte": 7 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 1000.0, "contracts": 0, "risk_per_spread": 11420.0, "total_risk": 0.0, "over_budget": true, "note": "One spread already risks $11,420, above the $1,000 budget. Narrow the wings, go further out of the money, or skip it." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } } ], "avoid": [ { "name": "Selling premium", "reason": "A squeeze this tight can expand fast — bad time to be short vega." } ], "why": [ "IV rank 13/100 (fair premium, blended score 35).", "Options price a 11.9% move over the horizon vs 10.6% realized (1.13× IV/HV).", "Squeeze on for 10 days — still building, not yet fired.", "Setup score 94/100, direction bullish (weak)." ], "warnings": [ "Earnings in 18 days, inside this expiry: part of the premium is event premium, and IV collapses the morning after the print. Being right on direction may still lose money." ] }, "long_dated": { "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "target_days": 395, "iv_annual": 61.15, "front_iv_annual": 59.84, "liquidity": "fair", "atm_spread_pct": 4.5, "atm_open_interest": 117, "premium_state": "fair", "bias": "bullish", "bias_strength": "weak", "preferred": "leaps_bull_call", "summary": "The bullish lean plus fair premium points at the LEAPS Bull Call Spread on the 2027-09-17 expiry (371 days out).", "candidates": [ { "key": "leaps_bull_call", "name": "LEAPS Bull Call Spread", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "A year of room for the upside thesis, at a cost that is fixed the day you put it on.", "playbook": "Buy a call about 13 months out, sell a higher one in the same expiry. A bullish position with a year to be right and a cost you know on day one — the short leg pays for part of the long one and caps the win.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 980.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 256.05, "bid": 250.3, "ask": 261.8, "iv": 66.87, "open_interest": 117, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 980 call" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 1120.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 208.725, "bid": 202.85, "ask": 214.6, "iv": 66.51, "open_interest": 130, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 1120 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 4732.5, "max_profit": 9267.5, "max_loss": 4732.5, "breakevens": [ 1027.33 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.347, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "take 50–70% of the maximum profit — the last of it takes months to arrive", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit, or sooner if the reason you put it on stops being true", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll or close with ~90 days left; the final quarter is where a long-dated spread loses its remaining time value fastest", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 0, "risk_per_spread": 4732.5, "total_risk": 0.0, "over_budget": true, "note": "One spread already risks $4,732, above the $2,500 budget. Narrow the wings, go further out of the money, or skip it." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, { "key": "poor_mans_covered_call", "name": "Poor Man's Covered Call", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "Own the year cheaply through a deep in-the-money call, and rent the near month out against it every cycle.", "playbook": "Buy a deep in-the-money call 13 months out as a cheaper stand-in for 100 shares, then sell a near-dated call against it and roll that short leg each month. Covered-call income on a fraction of the capital — and the long call, not stock, is what secures it.", "vega": "long", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 780.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 346.325, "bid": 339.9, "ask": 352.75, "iv": 68.35, "open_interest": 92, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 780 call" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 1115.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 17.075, "bid": 16.45, "ask": 17.7, "iv": 62.81, "open_interest": 95, "label": "Sell 1× 2026-10-02 1115 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": 21, "net": 32925.0, "max_profit": 575.0, "max_loss": 32925.0, "breakevens": [ 1109.25 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": null, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "roll the short call out each month for a fresh credit; take the whole position off at 50–70% of the maximum", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut if the long call loses half its value — the thesis is gone, not just early", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll the long leg with ~90 days left. Never let the short call go to assignment while you still want the long one.", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 0, "risk_per_spread": 32925.0, "total_risk": 0.0, "over_budget": true, "note": "One spread already risks $32,925, above the $2,500 budget. Narrow the wings, go further out of the money, or skip it." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "option_covered", "note": "The short call is secured by the long call, not by shares and not by margin: assignment is covered by exercising or selling the long leg. That is why the whole position can only lose the debit — and why the long leg must never be closed first." } }, { "key": "leaps_bull_put", "name": "LEAPS Bull Put Spread", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "Paid up front to be right about a direction over a year, with the loss capped by the long wing — but the capital is committed for that whole year.", "playbook": "Sell a long-dated put well below the price, buy a lower one for protection. You collect the credit up front and keep it if the stock holds up — but the capital is committed for a year and the decay arrives mostly at the end.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "sell", "right": "put", "strike": 780.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 115.475, "bid": 112.65, "ask": 118.3, "iv": 57.03, "open_interest": 116, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 780 put" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 720.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 90.425, "bid": 82.65, "ask": 98.2, "iv": 57.36, "open_interest": 37, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 720 put" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -2505.0, "max_profit": 2505.0, "max_loss": 3495.0, "breakevens": [ 754.95 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.543, "credit_to_width": 0.417, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit — usually long before expiry", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~90 days to expiry, before gamma starts to matter", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 0, "risk_per_spread": 3495.0, "total_risk": 0.0, "over_budget": true, "note": "One spread already risks $3,495, above the $2,500 budget. Narrow the wings, go further out of the money, or skip it." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "short_premium", "note": "You collect a premium for taking on an obligation, held against margin. The long wings cap the loss — without them it is open-ended." } }, { "key": "leaps_bear_put", "name": "LEAPS Bear Put Spread", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "bearish", "thesis": "A year of room for the downside thesis, at a cost that is fixed the day you put it on.", "playbook": "Buy a long-dated put, sell a lower one. The same shape pointed down: a year of room for a thesis, at a defined cost.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 980.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 217.75, "bid": 211.6, "ask": 223.9, "iv": 55.43, "open_interest": 89, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 980 put" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "put", "strike": 830.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 137.35, "bid": 130.8, "ask": 143.9, "iv": 56.37, "open_interest": 236, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 830 put" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 8040.0, "max_profit": 6960.0, "max_loss": 8040.0, "breakevens": [ 899.6 ], "profit_zone": "below", "pop": 0.57, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "take 50–70% of the maximum profit — the last of it takes months to arrive", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit, or sooner if the reason you put it on stops being true", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll or close with ~90 days left; the final quarter is where a long-dated spread loses its remaining time value fastest", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 0, "risk_per_spread": 8040.0, "total_risk": 0.0, "over_budget": true, "note": "One spread already risks $8,040, above the $2,500 budget. Narrow the wings, go further out of the money, or skip it." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, { "key": "leaps_bear_call", "name": "LEAPS Bear Call Spread", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bearish", "thesis": "Paid up front to be right about a direction over a year, with the loss capped by the long wing — but the capital is committed for that whole year.", "playbook": "Sell a long-dated call well above the price, buy a higher one. The credit is yours if the stock stays under the short strike for the year.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 1170.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 194.875, "bid": 189.7, "ask": 200.05, "iv": 66.59, "open_interest": 259, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 1170 call" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 1230.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 180.025, "bid": 173.25, "ask": 186.8, "iv": 66.78, "open_interest": 95, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 1230 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -1485.0, "max_profit": 1485.0, "max_loss": 4515.0, "breakevens": [ 1184.85 ], "profit_zone": "below", "pop": 0.734, "credit_to_width": 0.247, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit — usually long before expiry", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~90 days to expiry, before gamma starts to matter", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 0, "risk_per_spread": 4515.0, "total_risk": 0.0, "over_budget": true, "note": "One spread already risks $4,515, above the $2,500 budget. Narrow the wings, go further out of the money, or skip it." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "short_premium", "note": "You collect a premium for taking on an obligation, held against margin. The long wings cap the loss — without them it is open-ended." } } ], "warnings": [ "IV rank 13 is a front-month reading. A 13-month contract is priced off a flatter part of the volatility surface, so 'cheap' or 'rich' here is a weaker signal than it is on the near expiry — this expiry's own ATM IV is 61%.", "About 4 earnings reports fall inside this 371-day expiry. A long-dated spread is priced through all of them; none of them is the trade.", "The Poor Man's Covered Call's max profit below is the conservative case — assigned on the very first short call. Rolling that short leg out each month is where the structure actually earns, and no figure here counts those rolls.", "The short legs can be assigned early — most often a short call the day before an ex-dividend date. Know the dividend calendar before you sell one." ] }, "screen": { "compliant": true, "industry_ok": true, "industry": "Semiconductors", "debt_ratio": 0.0057887224297999435, "cash_ratio": 0.023625178603048382, "receivables_ratio": null, "reasons": [ "ok" ] } }, { "rank": 2, "ticker": "GOOGL", "price": 338.5, "score": 93.1, "squeeze_on": true, "squeeze_days": 7, "squeeze_fired": false, "fired_dir": "", "bandwidth_pctile": 0.042, "hv_annual": 18.8, "hv_pctile": 0.025, "em_pct": 3.75, "horizon_days": 10, "down_1sigma": 325.8, "up_1sigma": 351.2, "down_2sigma": 313.11, "up_2sigma": 363.89, "lean": "Bearish", "note": "", "debt_ratio": 0.029177746100767402, "cash_ratio": 0.058570958402908775, "earnings_in_days": 46, "implied_move_pct": 5.6, "vol_verdict": "rich", "iv_annual": 28.09, "iv_rank": 37.2, "premium_score": 57.7, "premium_state": "fair", "liquidity": "fair", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "strategy": "Long Strangle", "options": { "iv_annual": 28.09, "hv_annual": 18.8, "implied_move_pct": 5.6, "hist_move_pct": 3.75, "iv_rank": 37.2, "iv_percentile": 45.5, "vrp": 9.26, "iv_hv_ratio": 1.49, "verdict": "rich", "premium_score": 57.7, "premium_state": "fair", "term_slope": 0.2161, "term_structure": "contango", "skew": 0.06, "skew_label": "balanced", "atm_spread_pct": 7.5, "atm_open_interest": 1379, "liquidity": "fair", "expiry": "2026-10-02", "days_to_expiry": 21, "expiries": [ { "date": "2026-09-14", "dte": 3 }, { "date": "2026-09-16", "dte": 5 }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "dte": 7 }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "dte": 14 }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21 }, { "date": "2026-10-09", "dte": 28 }, { "date": "2026-10-16", "dte": 35 }, { "date": "2026-10-23", "dte": 42 }, { "date": "2026-11-20", "dte": 70 }, { "date": "2026-12-18", "dte": 98 }, { "date": "2027-01-15", "dte": 126 }, { "date": "2027-02-19", "dte": 161 } ], "long_expiry": "2027-09-17", "long_dte": 371, "long_iv": 36.24, "long_spread_pct": 5.0, "long_open_interest": 426, "long_liquidity": "fair" }, "recommendation": { "ticker": "GOOGL", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "headline": "GOOGL: BUY premium — IV rank 37, fair → Long Strangle", "detail": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 355 call; Buy 1× 2026-10-02 320 put — net debit $584.50 per spread", "confidence": 0.56, "premium_state": "fair", "premium_score": 57.7, "bias": "bearish", "bias_strength": "weak", "plan": { "key": "long_strangle", "name": "Long Strangle", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "Cheap options plus a coiled chart — the budget version of the both-ways bet.", "playbook": "Buy an out-of-the-money call and an out-of-the-money put. Cheaper than a straddle and needs a bigger move to pay — the budget version of the same both-ways bet.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 355.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 3.425, "bid": 3.3, "ask": 3.55, "iv": 28.38, "open_interest": 15263, "label": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 355 call" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 320.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 2.42, "bid": 2.29, "ask": 2.55, "iv": 27.63, "open_interest": 1843, "label": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 320 put" } ], "expiry": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 584.5, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": 584.5, "breakevens": [ 314.15, 360.85 ], "profit_zone": "outside", "pop": 0.304, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "close at +50% to +100% of the debit", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "be out with ~7 days to expiry — theta accelerates into the last week", "close_by_dte": 7 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 1000.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 584.5, "total_risk": 584.5, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $584 of a $1,000 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, "alternatives": [ { "key": "long_straddle", "name": "Long Straddle", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "Options are cheap and the chart is coiled — pay for the move, either direction.", "playbook": "Buy the at-the-money call and the at-the-money put. You win if the move is big enough, either way; you lose if it sits still. The trade for cheap options in front of a coiled chart.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 340.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 8.625, "bid": 8.3, "ask": 8.95, "iv": 29.14, "open_interest": 1379, "label": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 340 call" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 340.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 9.325, "bid": 8.9, "ask": 9.75, "iv": 27.03, "open_interest": 1556, "label": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 340 put" } ], "expiry": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 1795.0, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": 1795.0, "breakevens": [ 322.05, 357.95 ], "profit_zone": "outside", "pop": 0.434, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "close at +50% to +100% of the debit", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "be out with ~7 days to expiry — theta accelerates into the last week", "close_by_dte": 7 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 1000.0, "contracts": 0, "risk_per_spread": 1795.0, "total_risk": 0.0, "over_budget": true, "note": "One spread already risks $1,795, above the $1,000 budget. Narrow the wings, go further out of the money, or skip it." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } } ], "avoid": [ { "name": "Selling premium", "reason": "A squeeze this tight can expand fast — bad time to be short vega." } ], "why": [ "IV rank 37/100 (fair premium, blended score 58).", "Options price a 5.6% move over the horizon vs 3.8% realized (1.49× IV/HV).", "Squeeze on for 7 days — still building, not yet fired.", "Setup score 93/100, direction bearish (weak).", "Term structure in contango (+21.6% front→back)." ], "warnings": [] }, "long_dated": { "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "target_days": 395, "iv_annual": 36.24, "front_iv_annual": 28.09, "liquidity": "fair", "atm_spread_pct": 5.0, "atm_open_interest": 426, "premium_state": "fair", "bias": "bearish", "bias_strength": "weak", "preferred": "leaps_bear_put", "summary": "The bearish lean plus fair premium points at the LEAPS Bear Put Spread on the 2027-09-17 expiry (371 days out).", "candidates": [ { "key": "leaps_bull_call", "name": "LEAPS Bull Call Spread", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "A year of room for the upside thesis, at a cost that is fixed the day you put it on.", "playbook": "Buy a call about 13 months out, sell a higher one in the same expiry. A bullish position with a year to be right and a cost you know on day one — the short leg pays for part of the long one and caps the win.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 340.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 54.725, "bid": 53.35, "ask": 56.1, "iv": 41.91, "open_interest": 426, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 340 call" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 390.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 34.825, "bid": 34.05, "ask": 35.6, "iv": 39.67, "open_interest": 187, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 390 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 1990.0, "max_profit": 3010.0, "max_loss": 1990.0, "breakevens": [ 359.9 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.363, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "take 50–70% of the maximum profit — the last of it takes months to arrive", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit, or sooner if the reason you put it on stops being true", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll or close with ~90 days left; the final quarter is where a long-dated spread loses its remaining time value fastest", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 1990.0, "total_risk": 1990.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $1,990 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, { "key": "leaps_bull_put", "name": "LEAPS Bull Put Spread", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "Paid up front to be right about a direction over a year, with the loss capped by the long wing — but the capital is committed for that whole year.", "playbook": "Sell a long-dated put well below the price, buy a lower one for protection. You collect the credit up front and keep it if the stock holds up — but the capital is committed for a year and the decay arrives mostly at the end.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "sell", "right": "put", "strike": 270.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 14.4, "bid": 13.55, "ask": 15.25, "iv": 33.48, "open_interest": 731, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 270 put" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 245.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 8.475, "bid": 8.2, "ask": 8.75, "iv": 33.52, "open_interest": 99, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 245 put" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -592.5, "max_profit": 592.5, "max_loss": 1907.5, "breakevens": [ 264.07 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.69, "credit_to_width": 0.237, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit — usually long before expiry", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~90 days to expiry, before gamma starts to matter", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 1907.5, "total_risk": 1907.5, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $1,908 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "short_premium", "note": "You collect a premium for taking on an obligation, held against margin. The long wings cap the loss — without them it is open-ended." } }, { "key": "leaps_bear_put", "name": "LEAPS Bear Put Spread", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "bearish", "thesis": "A year of room for the downside thesis, at a cost that is fixed the day you put it on.", "playbook": "Buy a long-dated put, sell a lower one. The same shape pointed down: a year of room for a thesis, at a defined cost.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 340.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 41.225, "bid": 40.1, "ask": 42.35, "iv": 30.58, "open_interest": 574, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 340 put" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "put", "strike": 290.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 20.25, "bid": 19.4, "ask": 21.1, "iv": 32.5, "open_interest": 720, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 290 put" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 2097.5, "max_profit": 2902.5, "max_loss": 2097.5, "breakevens": [ 319.02 ], "profit_zone": "below", "pop": 0.508, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "take 50–70% of the maximum profit — the last of it takes months to arrive", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit, or sooner if the reason you put it on stops being true", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll or close with ~90 days left; the final quarter is where a long-dated spread loses its remaining time value fastest", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 2097.5, "total_risk": 2097.5, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $2,098 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, { "key": "leaps_bear_call", "name": "LEAPS Bear Call Spread", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bearish", "thesis": "Paid up front to be right about a direction over a year, with the loss capped by the long wing — but the capital is committed for that whole year.", "playbook": "Sell a long-dated call well above the price, buy a higher one. The credit is yours if the stock stays under the short strike for the year.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 405.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 30.55, "bid": 29.6, "ask": 31.5, "iv": 39.68, "open_interest": 147, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 405 call" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 430.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 24.1, "bid": 23.4, "ask": 24.8, "iv": 39.02, "open_interest": 379, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 430 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -645.0, "max_profit": 645.0, "max_loss": 1855.0, "breakevens": [ 411.45 ], "profit_zone": "below", "pop": 0.763, "credit_to_width": 0.258, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit — usually long before expiry", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~90 days to expiry, before gamma starts to matter", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 1855.0, "total_risk": 1855.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $1,855 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "short_premium", "note": "You collect a premium for taking on an obligation, held against margin. The long wings cap the loss — without them it is open-ended." } } ], "warnings": [ "IV rank 37 is a front-month reading. A 13-month contract is priced off a flatter part of the volatility surface, so 'cheap' or 'rich' here is a weaker signal than it is on the near expiry — this expiry's own ATM IV is 36%.", "About 4 earnings reports fall inside this 371-day expiry. A long-dated spread is priced through all of them; none of them is the trade.", "The short legs can be assigned early — most often a short call the day before an ex-dividend date. Know the dividend calendar before you sell one." ] }, "screen": { "compliant": true, "industry_ok": true, "industry": "Internet Content & Information", "debt_ratio": 0.029177746100767402, "cash_ratio": 0.058570958402908775, "receivables_ratio": null, "reasons": [ "ok" ] } }, { "rank": 3, "ticker": "GOOG", "price": 335.45, "score": 93.0, "squeeze_on": true, "squeeze_days": 6, "squeeze_fired": false, "fired_dir": "", "bandwidth_pctile": 0.025, "hv_annual": 17.4, "hv_pctile": 0.025, "em_pct": 3.46, "horizon_days": 10, "down_1sigma": 323.84, "up_1sigma": 347.06, "down_2sigma": 312.22, "up_2sigma": 358.68, "lean": "Bearish", "note": "", "debt_ratio": 0.029443037541349262, "cash_ratio": 0.059103500357222345, "earnings_in_days": 46, "implied_move_pct": 5.78, "vol_verdict": "rich", "iv_annual": 29.02, "iv_rank": 40.1, "premium_score": 62.5, "premium_state": "fair", "liquidity": "fair", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "strategy": "Long Strangle", "options": { "iv_annual": 29.02, "hv_annual": 17.4, "implied_move_pct": 5.78, "hist_move_pct": 3.46, "iv_rank": 40.1, "iv_percentile": 51.1, "vrp": 11.64, "iv_hv_ratio": 1.67, "verdict": "rich", "premium_score": 62.5, "premium_state": "fair", "term_slope": 0.193, "term_structure": "contango", "skew": -0.56, "skew_label": "balanced", "atm_spread_pct": 6.2, "atm_open_interest": 972, "liquidity": "fair", "expiry": "2026-10-02", "days_to_expiry": 21, "expiries": [ { "date": "2026-09-18", "dte": 7 }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "dte": 14 }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21 }, { "date": "2026-10-09", "dte": 28 }, { "date": "2026-10-16", "dte": 35 }, { "date": "2026-10-23", "dte": 42 }, { "date": "2026-11-20", "dte": 70 }, { "date": "2026-12-18", "dte": 98 }, { "date": "2027-01-15", "dte": 126 }, { "date": "2027-02-19", "dte": 161 }, { "date": "2027-03-19", "dte": 189 }, { "date": "2027-06-17", "dte": 279 } ], "long_expiry": "2027-09-17", "long_dte": 371, "long_iv": 36.37, "long_spread_pct": 8.2, "long_open_interest": 128, "long_liquidity": "fair" }, "recommendation": { "ticker": "GOOG", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "headline": "GOOG: BUY premium — IV rank 40, fair → Long Strangle", "detail": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 355 call; Buy 1× 2026-10-02 320 put — net debit $565.00 per spread", "confidence": 0.6, "premium_state": "fair", "premium_score": 62.5, "bias": "bearish", "bias_strength": "weak", "plan": { "key": "long_strangle", "name": "Long Strangle", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "Cheap options plus a coiled chart — the budget version of the both-ways bet.", "playbook": "Buy an out-of-the-money call and an out-of-the-money put. Cheaper than a straddle and needs a bigger move to pay — the budget version of the same both-ways bet.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 355.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 2.825, "bid": 2.71, "ask": 2.94, "iv": 28.86, "open_interest": 1297, "label": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 355 call" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 320.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 2.825, "bid": 2.65, "ask": 3.0, "iv": 26.83, "open_interest": 1218, "label": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 320 put" } ], "expiry": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 565.0, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": 565.0, "breakevens": [ 314.35, 360.65 ], "profit_zone": "outside", "pop": 0.326, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "close at +50% to +100% of the debit", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "be out with ~7 days to expiry — theta accelerates into the last week", "close_by_dte": 7 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 1000.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 565.0, "total_risk": 565.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $565 of a $1,000 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, "alternatives": [ { "key": "long_straddle", "name": "Long Straddle", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "Options are cheap and the chart is coiled — pay for the move, either direction.", "playbook": "Buy the at-the-money call and the at-the-money put. You win if the move is big enough, either way; you lose if it sits still. The trade for cheap options in front of a coiled chart.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 335.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 9.6, "bid": 9.3, "ask": 9.9, "iv": 29.47, "open_interest": 972, "label": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 335 call" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 335.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 8.475, "bid": 7.8, "ask": 9.15, "iv": 28.56, "open_interest": 477, "label": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 335 put" } ], "expiry": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 1807.5, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": 1807.5, "breakevens": [ 316.93, 353.07 ], "profit_zone": "outside", "pop": 0.438, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "close at +50% to +100% of the debit", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "be out with ~7 days to expiry — theta accelerates into the last week", "close_by_dte": 7 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 1000.0, "contracts": 0, "risk_per_spread": 1807.5, "total_risk": 0.0, "over_budget": true, "note": "One spread already risks $1,808, above the $1,000 budget. Narrow the wings, go further out of the money, or skip it." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } } ], "avoid": [ { "name": "Selling premium", "reason": "A squeeze this tight can expand fast — bad time to be short vega." } ], "why": [ "IV rank 40/100 (fair premium, blended score 62).", "Options price a 5.8% move over the horizon vs 3.5% realized (1.67× IV/HV).", "Squeeze on for 6 days — still building, not yet fired.", "Setup score 93/100, direction bearish (weak).", "Term structure in contango (+19.3% front→back)." ], "warnings": [] }, "long_dated": { "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "target_days": 395, "iv_annual": 36.37, "front_iv_annual": 29.02, "liquidity": "fair", "atm_spread_pct": 8.2, "atm_open_interest": 128, "premium_state": "fair", "bias": "bearish", "bias_strength": "weak", "preferred": "leaps_bear_put", "summary": "The bearish lean plus fair premium points at the LEAPS Bear Put Spread on the 2027-09-17 expiry (371 days out).", "candidates": [ { "key": "leaps_bull_call", "name": "LEAPS Bull Call Spread", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "A year of room for the upside thesis, at a cost that is fixed the day you put it on.", "playbook": "Buy a call about 13 months out, sell a higher one in the same expiry. A bullish position with a year to be right and a cost you know on day one — the short leg pays for part of the long one and caps the win.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 335.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 54.75, "bid": 52.5, "ask": 57.0, "iv": 42.36, "open_interest": 128, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 335 call" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 385.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 34.825, "bid": 34.05, "ask": 35.6, "iv": 39.59, "open_interest": 236, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 385 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 1992.5, "max_profit": 3007.5, "max_loss": 1992.5, "breakevens": [ 354.93 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.368, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "take 50–70% of the maximum profit — the last of it takes months to arrive", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit, or sooner if the reason you put it on stops being true", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll or close with ~90 days left; the final quarter is where a long-dated spread loses its remaining time value fastest", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 1992.5, "total_risk": 1992.5, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $1,992 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, { "key": "leaps_bull_put", "name": "LEAPS Bull Put Spread", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "Paid up front to be right about a direction over a year, with the loss capped by the long wing — but the capital is committed for that whole year.", "playbook": "Sell a long-dated put well below the price, buy a lower one for protection. You collect the credit up front and keep it if the stock holds up — but the capital is committed for a year and the decay arrives mostly at the end.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "sell", "right": "put", "strike": 270.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 14.55, "bid": 13.75, "ask": 15.35, "iv": 32.94, "open_interest": 163, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 270 put" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 245.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 8.75, "bid": 8.3, "ask": 9.2, "iv": 33.58, "open_interest": 44, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 245 put" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -580.0, "max_profit": 580.0, "max_loss": 1920.0, "breakevens": [ 264.2 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.68, "credit_to_width": 0.232, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit — usually long before expiry", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~90 days to expiry, before gamma starts to matter", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 1920.0, "total_risk": 1920.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $1,920 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "short_premium", "note": "You collect a premium for taking on an obligation, held against margin. The long wings cap the loss — without them it is open-ended." } }, { "key": "leaps_bear_put", "name": "LEAPS Bear Put Spread", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "bearish", "thesis": "A year of room for the downside thesis, at a cost that is fixed the day you put it on.", "playbook": "Buy a long-dated put, sell a lower one. The same shape pointed down: a year of room for a thesis, at a defined cost.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 335.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 39.15, "bid": 37.7, "ask": 40.6, "iv": 30.37, "open_interest": 165, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 335 put" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "put", "strike": 285.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 18.575, "bid": 18.25, "ask": 18.9, "iv": 31.46, "open_interest": 228, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 285 put" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 2057.5, "max_profit": 2942.5, "max_loss": 2057.5, "breakevens": [ 314.43 ], "profit_zone": "below", "pop": 0.503, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "take 50–70% of the maximum profit — the last of it takes months to arrive", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit, or sooner if the reason you put it on stops being true", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll or close with ~90 days left; the final quarter is where a long-dated spread loses its remaining time value fastest", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 2057.5, "total_risk": 2057.5, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $2,058 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, { "key": "leaps_bear_call", "name": "LEAPS Bear Call Spread", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bearish", "thesis": "Paid up front to be right about a direction over a year, with the loss capped by the long wing — but the capital is committed for that whole year.", "playbook": "Sell a long-dated call well above the price, buy a higher one. The credit is yours if the stock stays under the short strike for the year.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 405.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 28.925, "bid": 27.65, "ask": 30.2, "iv": 39.62, "open_interest": 159, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 405 call" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 435.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 22.1, "bid": 21.55, "ask": 22.65, "iv": 38.92, "open_interest": 109, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 435 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -682.5, "max_profit": 682.5, "max_loss": 2317.5, "breakevens": [ 411.82 ], "profit_zone": "below", "pop": 0.771, "credit_to_width": 0.228, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit — usually long before expiry", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~90 days to expiry, before gamma starts to matter", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 2317.5, "total_risk": 2317.5, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $2,318 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "short_premium", "note": "You collect a premium for taking on an obligation, held against margin. The long wings cap the loss — without them it is open-ended." } } ], "warnings": [ "IV rank 40 is a front-month reading. A 13-month contract is priced off a flatter part of the volatility surface, so 'cheap' or 'rich' here is a weaker signal than it is on the near expiry — this expiry's own ATM IV is 36%.", "About 4 earnings reports fall inside this 371-day expiry. A long-dated spread is priced through all of them; none of them is the trade.", "The short legs can be assigned early — most often a short call the day before an ex-dividend date. Know the dividend calendar before you sell one." ] }, "screen": { "compliant": true, "industry_ok": true, "industry": "Internet Content & Information", "debt_ratio": 0.029443037541349262, "cash_ratio": 0.059103500357222345, "receivables_ratio": null, "reasons": [ "ok" ] } }, { "rank": 4, "ticker": "CSCO", "price": 112.13, "score": 92.1, "squeeze_on": true, "squeeze_days": 2, "squeeze_fired": false, "fired_dir": "", "bandwidth_pctile": 0.008, "hv_annual": 21.9, "hv_pctile": 0.008, "em_pct": 4.37, "horizon_days": 10, "down_1sigma": 107.23, "up_1sigma": 117.03, "down_2sigma": 102.33, "up_2sigma": 121.93, "lean": "Neutral", "note": "", "debt_ratio": 0.07054117085258034, "cash_ratio": 0.03600687351385488, "earnings_in_days": 61, "implied_move_pct": 5.76, "vol_verdict": "rich", "iv_annual": 28.94, "iv_rank": 32.7, "premium_score": 49.4, "premium_state": "fair", "liquidity": "fair", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "strategy": "Long Strangle", "options": { "iv_annual": 28.94, "hv_annual": 21.9, "implied_move_pct": 5.76, "hist_move_pct": 4.37, "iv_rank": 32.7, "iv_percentile": 53.7, "vrp": 7.01, "iv_hv_ratio": 1.32, "verdict": "rich", "premium_score": 49.4, "premium_state": "fair", "term_slope": 0.3013, "term_structure": "contango", "skew": 3.62, "skew_label": "put_skew", "atm_spread_pct": 14.0, "atm_open_interest": 144, "liquidity": "fair", "expiry": "2026-10-02", "days_to_expiry": 21, "expiries": [ { "date": "2026-09-18", "dte": 7 }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "dte": 14 }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21 }, { "date": "2026-10-09", "dte": 28 }, { "date": "2026-10-16", "dte": 35 }, { "date": "2026-10-23", "dte": 42 }, { "date": "2026-11-20", "dte": 70 }, { "date": "2026-12-18", "dte": 98 }, { "date": "2027-01-15", "dte": 126 }, { "date": "2027-03-19", "dte": 189 }, { "date": "2027-04-16", "dte": 217 }, { "date": "2027-06-17", "dte": 279 } ], "long_expiry": "2027-09-17", "long_dte": 371, "long_iv": 38.43, "long_spread_pct": 5.0, "long_open_interest": 1216, "long_liquidity": "good" }, "recommendation": { "ticker": "CSCO", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "headline": "CSCO: BUY premium — IV rank 33, fair → Long Strangle", "detail": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 118 call; Buy 1× 2026-10-02 106 put — net debit $175.00 per spread", "confidence": 0.54, "premium_state": "fair", "premium_score": 49.4, "bias": "neutral", "bias_strength": "none", "plan": { "key": "long_strangle", "name": "Long Strangle", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "Cheap options plus a coiled chart — the budget version of the both-ways bet.", "playbook": "Buy an out-of-the-money call and an out-of-the-money put. Cheaper than a straddle and needs a bigger move to pay — the budget version of the same both-ways bet.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 118.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 0.89, "bid": 0.82, "ask": 0.96, "iv": 26.93, "open_interest": 359, "label": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 118 call" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 106.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 0.86, "bid": 0.73, "ask": 0.99, "iv": 29.52, "open_interest": 30, "label": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 106 put" } ], "expiry": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 175.0, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": 175.0, "breakevens": [ 104.25, 119.75 ], "profit_zone": "outside", "pop": 0.318, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "close at +50% to +100% of the debit", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "be out with ~7 days to expiry — theta accelerates into the last week", "close_by_dte": 7 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 1000.0, "contracts": 5, "risk_per_spread": 175.0, "total_risk": 875.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "5× risks $875 of a $1,000 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, "alternatives": [ { "key": "long_straddle", "name": "Long Straddle", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "Options are cheap and the chart is coiled — pay for the move, either direction.", "playbook": "Buy the at-the-money call and the at-the-money put. You win if the move is big enough, either way; you lose if it sits still. The trade for cheap options in front of a coiled chart.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 112.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 2.99, "bid": 2.78, "ask": 3.2, "iv": 28.57, "open_interest": 144, "label": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 112 call" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 112.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 2.99, "bid": 2.83, "ask": 3.15, "iv": 29.3, "open_interest": 32, "label": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 112 put" } ], "expiry": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 598.0, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": 598.0, "breakevens": [ 106.02, 117.98 ], "profit_zone": "outside", "pop": 0.441, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "close at +50% to +100% of the debit", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "be out with ~7 days to expiry — theta accelerates into the last week", "close_by_dte": 7 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 1000.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 598.0, "total_risk": 598.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $598 of a $1,000 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } } ], "avoid": [ { "name": "Selling premium", "reason": "A squeeze this tight can expand fast — bad time to be short vega." } ], "why": [ "IV rank 33/100 (fair premium, blended score 49).", "Options price a 5.8% move over the horizon vs 4.4% realized (1.32× IV/HV).", "Squeeze on for 2 days — still building, not yet fired.", "Setup score 92/100, no directional edge.", "Term structure in contango (+30.1% front→back).", "Puts bid over calls by 3.6 vol points — the put side pays more to sell." ], "warnings": [] }, "long_dated": { "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "target_days": 395, "iv_annual": 38.43, "front_iv_annual": 28.94, "liquidity": "good", "atm_spread_pct": 5.0, "atm_open_interest": 1216, "premium_state": "fair", "bias": "neutral", "bias_strength": "none", "preferred": null, "summary": "4 long-dated spreads price out on the 2027-09-17 expiry, but the scanner has no directional read on this name — and every 13-month spread is a directional bet. Listed for reference, not recommended.", "candidates": [ { "key": "leaps_bull_call", "name": "LEAPS Bull Call Spread", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "A year of room for the upside thesis, at a cost that is fixed the day you put it on.", "playbook": "Buy a call about 13 months out, sell a higher one in the same expiry. A bullish position with a year to be right and a cost you know on day one — the short leg pays for part of the long one and caps the win.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 110.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 18.975, "bid": 18.5, "ask": 19.45, "iv": 41.35, "open_interest": 1216, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 110 call" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 130.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 11.275, "bid": 10.4, "ask": 12.15, "iv": 41.0, "open_interest": 15, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 130 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 770.0, "max_profit": 1230.0, "max_loss": 770.0, "breakevens": [ 117.7 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.375, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "take 50–70% of the maximum profit — the last of it takes months to arrive", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit, or sooner if the reason you put it on stops being true", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll or close with ~90 days left; the final quarter is where a long-dated spread loses its remaining time value fastest", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 3, "risk_per_spread": 770.0, "total_risk": 2310.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "3× risks $2,310 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, { "key": "leaps_bull_put", "name": "LEAPS Bull Put Spread", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "Paid up front to be right about a direction over a year, with the loss capped by the long wing — but the capital is committed for that whole year.", "playbook": "Sell a long-dated put well below the price, buy a lower one for protection. You collect the credit up front and keep it if the stock holds up — but the capital is committed for a year and the decay arrives mostly at the end.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "sell", "right": "put", "strike": 90.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 5.8, "bid": 5.65, "ask": 5.95, "iv": 35.69, "open_interest": 17, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 90 put" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 80.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 3.31, "bid": 2.57, "ask": 4.05, "iv": 39.21, "open_interest": 58, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 80 put" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -249.0, "max_profit": 249.0, "max_loss": 751.0, "breakevens": [ 87.51 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.672, "credit_to_width": 0.249, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit — usually long before expiry", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~90 days to expiry, before gamma starts to matter", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 3, "risk_per_spread": 751.0, "total_risk": 2253.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "3× risks $2,253 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "short_premium", "note": "You collect a premium for taking on an obligation, held against margin. The long wings cap the loss — without them it is open-ended." } }, { "key": "leaps_bear_put", "name": "LEAPS Bear Put Spread", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "bearish", "thesis": "A year of room for the downside thesis, at a cost that is fixed the day you put it on.", "playbook": "Buy a long-dated put, sell a lower one. The same shape pointed down: a year of room for a thesis, at a defined cost.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 110.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 13.575, "bid": 12.4, "ask": 14.75, "iv": 35.51, "open_interest": 312, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 110 put" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "put", "strike": 95.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 7.025, "bid": 6.35, "ask": 7.7, "iv": 35.54, "open_interest": 128, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 95 put" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 655.0, "max_profit": 845.0, "max_loss": 655.0, "breakevens": [ 103.45 ], "profit_zone": "below", "pop": 0.494, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "take 50–70% of the maximum profit — the last of it takes months to arrive", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit, or sooner if the reason you put it on stops being true", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll or close with ~90 days left; the final quarter is where a long-dated spread loses its remaining time value fastest", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 3, "risk_per_spread": 655.0, "total_risk": 1965.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "3× risks $1,965 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, { "key": "leaps_bear_call", "name": "LEAPS Bear Call Spread", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bearish", "thesis": "Paid up front to be right about a direction over a year, with the loss capped by the long wing — but the capital is committed for that whole year.", "playbook": "Sell a long-dated call well above the price, buy a higher one. The credit is yours if the stock stays under the short strike for the year.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 135.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 10.125, "bid": 9.55, "ask": 10.7, "iv": 40.78, "open_interest": 4, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 135 call" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 145.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 7.725, "bid": 7.25, "ask": 8.2, "iv": 40.27, "open_interest": 9, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 145 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -240.0, "max_profit": 240.0, "max_loss": 760.0, "breakevens": [ 137.4 ], "profit_zone": "below", "pop": 0.764, "credit_to_width": 0.24, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit — usually long before expiry", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~90 days to expiry, before gamma starts to matter", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 3, "risk_per_spread": 760.0, "total_risk": 2280.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "3× risks $2,280 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "short_premium", "note": "You collect a premium for taking on an obligation, held against margin. The long wings cap the loss — without them it is open-ended." } } ], "warnings": [ "IV rank 33 is a front-month reading. A 13-month contract is priced off a flatter part of the volatility surface, so 'cheap' or 'rich' here is a weaker signal than it is on the near expiry — this expiry's own ATM IV is 38%.", "About 4 earnings reports fall inside this 371-day expiry. A long-dated spread is priced through all of them; none of them is the trade.", "The short legs can be assigned early — most often a short call the day before an ex-dividend date. Know the dividend calendar before you sell one." ] }, "screen": { "compliant": true, "industry_ok": true, "industry": "Communication Equipment", "debt_ratio": 0.07054117085258034, "cash_ratio": 0.03600687351385488, "receivables_ratio": null, "reasons": [ "ok" ] } }, { "rank": 5, "ticker": "PG", "price": 145.27, "score": 88.7, "squeeze_on": true, "squeeze_days": 41, "squeeze_fired": false, "fired_dir": "", "bandwidth_pctile": 0.158, "hv_annual": 15.1, "hv_pctile": 0.133, "em_pct": 3.0, "horizon_days": 10, "down_1sigma": 140.91, "up_1sigma": 149.63, "down_2sigma": 136.55, "up_2sigma": 153.99, "lean": "Bullish", "note": "", "debt_ratio": 0.10380403341647343, "cash_ratio": 0.029465230764031385, "earnings_in_days": 40, "implied_move_pct": 4.34, "vol_verdict": "rich", "iv_annual": 21.8, "iv_rank": 67.1, "premium_score": 71.8, "premium_state": "rich", "liquidity": "poor", "action": "STAND_ASIDE", "strategy": "Stand aside", "options": { "iv_annual": 21.8, "hv_annual": 15.1, "implied_move_pct": 4.34, "hist_move_pct": 3.0, "iv_rank": 67.1, "iv_percentile": 71.0, "vrp": 6.73, "iv_hv_ratio": 1.45, "verdict": "rich", "premium_score": 71.8, "premium_state": "rich", "term_slope": 0.0647, "term_structure": "contango", "skew": 2.15, "skew_label": "balanced", "atm_spread_pct": 30.2, "atm_open_interest": 32, "liquidity": "poor", "expiry": "2026-10-02", "days_to_expiry": 21, "expiries": [ { "date": "2026-09-18", "dte": 7 }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "dte": 14 }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21 }, { "date": "2026-10-09", "dte": 28 }, { "date": "2026-10-16", "dte": 35 }, { "date": "2026-10-23", "dte": 42 }, { "date": "2026-11-20", "dte": 70 }, { "date": "2026-12-18", "dte": 98 }, { "date": "2027-01-15", "dte": 126 }, { "date": "2027-02-19", "dte": 161 }, { "date": "2027-03-19", "dte": 189 }, { "date": "2027-04-16", "dte": 217 } ], "long_expiry": "2027-09-17", "long_dte": 371, "long_iv": 23.15, "long_spread_pct": 17.4, "long_open_interest": 10, "long_liquidity": "poor" }, "recommendation": { "ticker": "PG", "action": "STAND_ASIDE", "headline": "PG: stand aside — the options are too illiquid to trade: the at-the-money bid/ask is ~30% of mid. Premium looks rich, but you would give the edge back on the fills.", "detail": "The options are too illiquid to trade: the at-the-money bid/ask is ~30% of mid. Premium looks rich, but you would give the edge back on the fills.", "confidence": 0.0, "premium_state": "rich", "premium_score": 71.8, "bias": "bullish", "bias_strength": "weak", "plan": { "key": "stand_aside", "name": "Stand aside", "action": "STAND_ASIDE", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "The options are too illiquid to trade: the at-the-money bid/ask is ~30% of mid. Premium looks rich, but you would give the edge back on the fills.", "playbook": "No edge worth paying for. The best trade is often none.", "vega": "flat", "theta": "flat", "risk": "none", "legs": [], "expiry": null, "dte": null, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": null, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": null, "breakevens": [], "profit_zone": "", "pop": null, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": {}, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 1000.0, "contracts": 0 }, "risk_form": { "tier": "n/a", "note": "No position — nothing to secure." } }, "alternatives": [], "avoid": [ { "name": "Any multi-leg spread here", "reason": "The at-the-money bid/ask is ~30% of mid — slippage on entry and exit would cost more than the edge." } ], "why": [ "IV rank 67/100 (rich premium, blended score 72).", "Options price a 4.3% move over the horizon vs 3.0% realized (1.45× IV/HV).", "Squeeze on for 41 days — still building, not yet fired.", "Setup score 89/100, direction bullish (weak).", "Term structure in contango (+6.5% front→back)." ], "warnings": [ "Thin options market (ATM spread ~30% of mid, OI 32) — the bid/ask will eat a multi-leg spread. Use limit orders at mid, or skip it." ] }, "long_dated": { "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "target_days": 395, "iv_annual": 23.15, "front_iv_annual": 21.8, "liquidity": "poor", "atm_spread_pct": 17.4, "atm_open_interest": 10, "premium_state": "rich", "bias": "bullish", "bias_strength": "weak", "preferred": "leaps_bull_put", "summary": "The bullish lean plus rich premium points at the LEAPS Bull Put Spread on the 2027-09-17 expiry (371 days out).", "candidates": [ { "key": "leaps_bull_call", "name": "LEAPS Bull Call Spread", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "A year of room for the upside thesis, at a cost that is fixed the day you put it on.", "playbook": "Buy a call about 13 months out, sell a higher one in the same expiry. A bullish position with a year to be right and a cost you know on day one — the short leg pays for part of the long one and caps the win.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 145.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 13.525, "bid": 12.35, "ask": 14.7, "iv": 24.97, "open_interest": 10, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 145 call" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 165.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 5.6, "bid": 4.95, "ask": 6.25, "iv": 22.4, "open_interest": 131, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 165 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 792.5, "max_profit": 1207.5, "max_loss": 792.5, "breakevens": [ 152.93 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.368, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "take 50–70% of the maximum profit — the last of it takes months to arrive", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit, or sooner if the reason you put it on stops being true", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll or close with ~90 days left; the final quarter is where a long-dated spread loses its remaining time value fastest", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 3, "risk_per_spread": 792.5, "total_risk": 2377.5, "over_budget": false, "note": "3× risks $2,378 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, { "key": "poor_mans_covered_call", "name": "Poor Man's Covered Call", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "Own the year cheaply through a deep in-the-money call, and rent the near month out against it every cycle.", "playbook": "Buy a deep in-the-money call 13 months out as a cheaper stand-in for 100 shares, then sell a near-dated call against it and roll that short leg each month. Covered-call income on a fraction of the capital — and the long call, not stock, is what secures it.", "vega": "long", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 120.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 30.075, "bid": 29.3, "ask": 30.85, "iv": 28.12, "open_interest": 5, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 120 call" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 152.5, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 0.45, "bid": 0.2, "ask": 0.7, "iv": 20.85, "open_interest": 1157, "label": "Sell 1× 2026-10-02 152.5 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": 21, "net": 2962.5, "max_profit": 287.5, "max_loss": 2962.5, "breakevens": [ 149.62 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": null, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "roll the short call out each month for a fresh credit; take the whole position off at 50–70% of the maximum", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut if the long call loses half its value — the thesis is gone, not just early", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll the long leg with ~90 days left. Never let the short call go to assignment while you still want the long one.", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 0, "risk_per_spread": 2962.5, "total_risk": 0.0, "over_budget": true, "note": "One spread already risks $2,962, above the $2,500 budget. Narrow the wings, go further out of the money, or skip it." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "option_covered", "note": "The short call is secured by the long call, not by shares and not by margin: assignment is covered by exercising or selling the long leg. That is why the whole position can only lose the debit — and why the long leg must never be closed first." } }, { "key": "leaps_bull_put", "name": "LEAPS Bull Put Spread", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "Paid up front to be right about a direction over a year, with the loss capped by the long wing — but the capital is committed for that whole year.", "playbook": "Sell a long-dated put well below the price, buy a lower one for protection. You collect the credit up front and keep it if the stock holds up — but the capital is committed for a year and the decay arrives mostly at the end.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "sell", "right": "put", "strike": 115.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 2.885, "bid": 2.52, "ask": 3.25, "iv": 25.42, "open_interest": 23, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 115 put" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 105.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 1.64, "bid": 1.32, "ask": 1.96, "iv": 27.2, "open_interest": 10, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 105 put" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -124.5, "max_profit": 124.5, "max_loss": 875.5, "breakevens": [ 113.75 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.824, "credit_to_width": 0.124, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit — usually long before expiry", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~90 days to expiry, before gamma starts to matter", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 2, "risk_per_spread": 875.5, "total_risk": 1751.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "2× risks $1,751 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "short_premium", "note": "You collect a premium for taking on an obligation, held against margin. The long wings cap the loss — without them it is open-ended." } }, { "key": "leaps_bear_put", "name": "LEAPS Bear Put Spread", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "bearish", "thesis": "A year of room for the downside thesis, at a cost that is fixed the day you put it on.", "playbook": "Buy a long-dated put, sell a lower one. The same shape pointed down: a year of room for a thesis, at a defined cost.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 145.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 11.625, "bid": 10.95, "ask": 12.3, "iv": 21.33, "open_interest": 30, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 145 put" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "put", "strike": 125.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 5.1, "bid": 4.4, "ask": 5.8, "iv": 25.11, "open_interest": 41, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 125 put" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 652.5, "max_profit": 1347.5, "max_loss": 652.5, "breakevens": [ 138.47 ], "profit_zone": "below", "pop": 0.465, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "take 50–70% of the maximum profit — the last of it takes months to arrive", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit, or sooner if the reason you put it on stops being true", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll or close with ~90 days left; the final quarter is where a long-dated spread loses its remaining time value fastest", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 3, "risk_per_spread": 652.5, "total_risk": 1957.5, "over_budget": false, "note": "3× risks $1,958 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, { "key": "leaps_bear_call", "name": "LEAPS Bear Call Spread", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bearish", "thesis": "Paid up front to be right about a direction over a year, with the loss capped by the long wing — but the capital is committed for that whole year.", "playbook": "Sell a long-dated call well above the price, buy a higher one. The credit is yours if the stock stays under the short strike for the year.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 175.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 3.525, "bid": 3.05, "ask": 4.0, "iv": 22.08, "open_interest": 20, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 175 call" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 185.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 2.64, "bid": 2.03, "ask": 3.25, "iv": 23.85, "open_interest": 51, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 185 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -88.5, "max_profit": 88.5, "max_loss": 911.5, "breakevens": [ 175.88 ], "profit_zone": "below", "pop": 0.825, "credit_to_width": 0.088, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit — usually long before expiry", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~90 days to expiry, before gamma starts to matter", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 2, "risk_per_spread": 911.5, "total_risk": 1823.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "2× risks $1,823 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "short_premium", "note": "You collect a premium for taking on an obligation, held against margin. The long wings cap the loss — without them it is open-ended." } } ], "warnings": [ "The long-dated chain is thin (ATM spread ~17% of mid, OI 10). You pay that spread on the way in and again on the way out, a year apart. Work the order at mid and expect to wait.", "IV rank 67 is a front-month reading. A 13-month contract is priced off a flatter part of the volatility surface, so 'cheap' or 'rich' here is a weaker signal than it is on the near expiry — this expiry's own ATM IV is 23%.", "About 4 earnings reports fall inside this 371-day expiry. A long-dated spread is priced through all of them; none of them is the trade.", "Some of these credit spreads collect very little for the risk — the LEAPS Bear Call Spread takes only 9% of its width, and holds the capital for 371 days to do it. Widen the wings or pass.", "The Poor Man's Covered Call's max profit below is the conservative case — assigned on the very first short call. Rolling that short leg out each month is where the structure actually earns, and no figure here counts those rolls.", "The short legs can be assigned early — most often a short call the day before an ex-dividend date. Know the dividend calendar before you sell one." ] }, "screen": { "compliant": true, "industry_ok": true, "industry": "Household & Personal Products", "debt_ratio": 0.10380403341647343, "cash_ratio": 0.029465230764031385, "receivables_ratio": null, "reasons": [ "ok" ] } }, { "rank": 6, "ticker": "TMO", "price": 609.82, "score": 74.5, "squeeze_on": false, "squeeze_days": 0, "squeeze_fired": false, "fired_dir": "", "bandwidth_pctile": 0.042, "hv_annual": 23.6, "hv_pctile": 0.067, "em_pct": 4.71, "horizon_days": 10, "down_1sigma": 581.1, "up_1sigma": 638.54, "down_2sigma": 552.38, "up_2sigma": 667.26, "lean": "Bearish", "note": "", "debt_ratio": 0.18870467972914726, "cash_ratio": 0.018023827866024557, "earnings_in_days": 39, "implied_move_pct": 6.08, "vol_verdict": "rich", "iv_annual": 30.5, "iv_rank": 53.6, "premium_score": 57.0, "premium_state": "fair", "liquidity": "poor", "action": "STAND_ASIDE", "strategy": "Stand aside", "options": { "iv_annual": 30.5, "hv_annual": 23.6, "implied_move_pct": 6.08, "hist_move_pct": 4.71, "iv_rank": 53.6, "iv_percentile": 64.5, "vrp": 6.86, "iv_hv_ratio": 1.29, "verdict": "rich", "premium_score": 57.0, "premium_state": "fair", "term_slope": 0.1282, "term_structure": "contango", "skew": 3.36, "skew_label": "put_skew", "atm_spread_pct": 29.3, "atm_open_interest": 3, "liquidity": "poor", "expiry": "2026-10-02", "days_to_expiry": 21, "expiries": [ { "date": "2026-09-18", "dte": 7 }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "dte": 14 }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21 }, { "date": "2026-10-09", "dte": 28 }, { "date": "2026-10-16", "dte": 35 }, { "date": "2026-10-23", "dte": 42 }, { "date": "2026-11-20", "dte": 70 }, { "date": "2026-12-18", "dte": 98 }, { "date": "2027-01-15", "dte": 126 }, { "date": "2027-03-19", "dte": 189 }, { "date": "2027-06-17", "dte": 279 }, { "date": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371 } ], "long_expiry": "2027-09-17", "long_dte": 371, "long_iv": 33.58, "long_spread_pct": 8.1, "long_open_interest": 24, "long_liquidity": "poor" }, "recommendation": { "ticker": "TMO", "action": "STAND_ASIDE", "headline": "TMO: stand aside — the options are too illiquid to trade: the at-the-money bid/ask is ~29% of mid. Premium looks fair, but you would give the edge back on the fills.", "detail": "The options are too illiquid to trade: the at-the-money bid/ask is ~29% of mid. Premium looks fair, but you would give the edge back on the fills.", "confidence": 0.0, "premium_state": "fair", "premium_score": 57.0, "bias": "bearish", "bias_strength": "weak", "plan": { "key": "stand_aside", "name": "Stand aside", "action": "STAND_ASIDE", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "The options are too illiquid to trade: the at-the-money bid/ask is ~29% of mid. Premium looks fair, but you would give the edge back on the fills.", "playbook": "No edge worth paying for. The best trade is often none.", "vega": "flat", "theta": "flat", "risk": "none", "legs": [], "expiry": null, "dte": null, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": null, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": null, "breakevens": [], "profit_zone": "", "pop": null, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": {}, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 1000.0, "contracts": 0 }, "risk_form": { "tier": "n/a", "note": "No position — nothing to secure." } }, "alternatives": [], "avoid": [ { "name": "Any multi-leg spread here", "reason": "The at-the-money bid/ask is ~29% of mid — slippage on entry and exit would cost more than the edge." } ], "why": [ "IV rank 54/100 (fair premium, blended score 57).", "Options price a 6.1% move over the horizon vs 4.7% realized (1.29× IV/HV).", "Setup score 74/100, direction bearish (weak).", "Term structure in contango (+12.8% front→back).", "Puts bid over calls by 3.4 vol points — the put side pays more to sell." ], "warnings": [ "Thin options market (ATM spread ~29% of mid, OI 3) — the bid/ask will eat a multi-leg spread. Use limit orders at mid, or skip it." ] }, "long_dated": { "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "target_days": 395, "iv_annual": 33.58, "front_iv_annual": 30.5, "liquidity": "poor", "atm_spread_pct": 8.1, "atm_open_interest": 24, "premium_state": "fair", "bias": "bearish", "bias_strength": "weak", "preferred": "leaps_bear_put", "summary": "The bearish lean plus fair premium points at the LEAPS Bear Put Spread on the 2027-09-17 expiry (371 days out).", "candidates": [ { "key": "leaps_bull_call", "name": "LEAPS Bull Call Spread", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "A year of room for the upside thesis, at a cost that is fixed the day you put it on.", "playbook": "Buy a call about 13 months out, sell a higher one in the same expiry. A bullish position with a year to be right and a cost you know on day one — the short leg pays for part of the long one and caps the win.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 620.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 86.5, "bid": 83.0, "ask": 90.0, "iv": 38.59, "open_interest": 24, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 620 call" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 700.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 54.65, "bid": 51.3, "ask": 58.0, "iv": 36.83, "open_interest": 198, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 700 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 3185.0, "max_profit": 4815.0, "max_loss": 3185.0, "breakevens": [ 651.85 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.357, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "take 50–70% of the maximum profit — the last of it takes months to arrive", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit, or sooner if the reason you put it on stops being true", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll or close with ~90 days left; the final quarter is where a long-dated spread loses its remaining time value fastest", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 0, "risk_per_spread": 3185.0, "total_risk": 0.0, "over_budget": true, "note": "One spread already risks $3,185, above the $2,500 budget. Narrow the wings, go further out of the money, or skip it." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, { "key": "leaps_bear_put", "name": "LEAPS Bear Put Spread", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "bearish", "thesis": "A year of room for the downside thesis, at a cost that is fixed the day you put it on.", "playbook": "Buy a long-dated put, sell a lower one. The same shape pointed down: a year of room for a thesis, at a defined cost.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 610.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 66.0, "bid": 62.0, "ask": 70.0, "iv": 28.57, "open_interest": 2, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 610 put" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "put", "strike": 520.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 31.7, "bid": 28.5, "ask": 34.9, "iv": 31.39, "open_interest": 5, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 520 put" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 3430.0, "max_profit": 5570.0, "max_loss": 3430.0, "breakevens": [ 575.7 ], "profit_zone": "below", "pop": 0.5, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "take 50–70% of the maximum profit — the last of it takes months to arrive", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit, or sooner if the reason you put it on stops being true", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll or close with ~90 days left; the final quarter is where a long-dated spread loses its remaining time value fastest", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 0, "risk_per_spread": 3430.0, "total_risk": 0.0, "over_budget": true, "note": "One spread already risks $3,430, above the $2,500 budget. Narrow the wings, go further out of the money, or skip it." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, { "key": "leaps_bear_call", "name": "LEAPS Bear Call Spread", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bearish", "thesis": "Paid up front to be right about a direction over a year, with the loss capped by the long wing — but the capital is committed for that whole year.", "playbook": "Sell a long-dated call well above the price, buy a higher one. The credit is yours if the stock stays under the short strike for the year.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 720.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 48.0, "bid": 44.0, "ask": 52.0, "iv": 36.63, "open_interest": 2, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 720 call" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 760.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 37.5, "bid": 33.0, "ask": 42.0, "iv": 36.45, "open_interest": 1, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 760 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -1050.0, "max_profit": 1050.0, "max_loss": 2950.0, "breakevens": [ 730.5 ], "profit_zone": "below", "pop": 0.759, "credit_to_width": 0.263, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit — usually long before expiry", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~90 days to expiry, before gamma starts to matter", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 0, "risk_per_spread": 2950.0, "total_risk": 0.0, "over_budget": true, "note": "One spread already risks $2,950, above the $2,500 budget. Narrow the wings, go further out of the money, or skip it." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "short_premium", "note": "You collect a premium for taking on an obligation, held against margin. The long wings cap the loss — without them it is open-ended." } } ], "warnings": [ "The long-dated chain is thin (ATM spread ~8% of mid, OI 24). You pay that spread on the way in and again on the way out, a year apart. Work the order at mid and expect to wait.", "IV rank 54 is a front-month reading. A 13-month contract is priced off a flatter part of the volatility surface, so 'cheap' or 'rich' here is a weaker signal than it is on the near expiry — this expiry's own ATM IV is 34%.", "About 4 earnings reports fall inside this 371-day expiry. A long-dated spread is priced through all of them; none of them is the trade.", "The short legs can be assigned early — most often a short call the day before an ex-dividend date. Know the dividend calendar before you sell one." ] }, "screen": { "compliant": true, "industry_ok": true, "industry": "Diagnostics & Research", "debt_ratio": 0.18870467972914726, "cash_ratio": 0.018023827866024557, "receivables_ratio": null, "reasons": [ "ok" ] } }, { "rank": 7, "ticker": "XOM", "price": 165.99, "score": 74.3, "squeeze_on": false, "squeeze_days": 0, "squeeze_fired": false, "fired_dir": "", "bandwidth_pctile": 0.033, "hv_annual": 22.5, "hv_pctile": 0.075, "em_pct": 4.48, "horizon_days": 10, "down_1sigma": 158.55, "up_1sigma": 173.43, "down_2sigma": 151.11, "up_2sigma": 180.87, "lean": "Bullish", "note": "", "debt_ratio": 0.06207435669872431, "cash_ratio": 0.015512729055351405, "earnings_in_days": 48, "implied_move_pct": 5.97, "vol_verdict": "rich", "iv_annual": 29.99, "iv_rank": 71.5, "premium_score": 69.9, "premium_state": "rich", "liquidity": "fair", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "strategy": "Bull Put Spread", "options": { "iv_annual": 29.99, "hv_annual": 22.5, "implied_move_pct": 5.97, "hist_move_pct": 4.48, "iv_rank": 71.5, "iv_percentile": 82.7, "vrp": 7.49, "iv_hv_ratio": 1.33, "verdict": "rich", "premium_score": 69.9, "premium_state": "rich", "term_slope": 0.056, "term_structure": "contango", "skew": 2.11, "skew_label": "balanced", "atm_spread_pct": 12.3, "atm_open_interest": 176, "liquidity": "fair", "expiry": "2026-10-02", "days_to_expiry": 21, "expiries": [ { "date": "2026-09-18", "dte": 7 }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "dte": 14 }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21 }, { "date": "2026-10-09", "dte": 28 }, { "date": "2026-10-16", "dte": 35 }, { "date": "2026-10-23", "dte": 42 }, { "date": "2026-11-20", "dte": 70 }, { "date": "2026-12-18", "dte": 98 }, { "date": "2027-01-15", "dte": 126 }, { "date": "2027-03-19", "dte": 189 }, { "date": "2027-04-16", "dte": 217 }, { "date": "2027-06-17", "dte": 279 } ], "long_expiry": "2027-09-17", "long_dte": 371, "long_iv": 30.43, "long_spread_pct": 14.1, "long_open_interest": 47, "long_liquidity": "poor" }, "recommendation": { "ticker": "XOM", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "headline": "XOM: SELL premium — IV rank 72, rich → Bull Put Spread", "detail": "Sell 1× 2026-10-02 155 put; Buy 1× 2026-10-02 150 put — net credit $60.00 per spread", "confidence": 0.64, "premium_state": "rich", "premium_score": 69.9, "bias": "bullish", "bias_strength": "weak", "plan": { "key": "bull_put_spread", "name": "Bull Put Spread", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "Premium is rich and the lean is up — get paid to be right about a direction you don't need to nail.", "playbook": "Sell a put, buy a lower one. You collect credit and win if the stock stays above the short put — a bullish way to be short rich premium.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "sell", "right": "put", "strike": 155.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 1.125, "bid": 1.01, "ask": 1.24, "iv": 31.14, "open_interest": 234, "label": "Sell 1× 2026-10-02 155 put" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 150.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 0.525, "bid": 0.42, "ask": 0.63, "iv": 32.76, "open_interest": 127, "label": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 150 put" } ], "expiry": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -60.0, "max_profit": 60.0, "max_loss": 440.0, "breakevens": [ 154.4 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.834, "credit_to_width": 0.12, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit received", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~21 days to expiry — gamma risk rises fast after that", "close_by_dte": 21 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 1000.0, "contracts": 2, "risk_per_spread": 440.0, "total_risk": 880.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "2× risks $880 of a $1,000 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "short_premium", "note": "You collect a premium for taking on an obligation, held against margin. The long wings cap the loss — without them it is open-ended." } }, "alternatives": [ { "key": "covered_call", "name": "Covered Call", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "Rich premium against shares you already hold — income, with the upside capped.", "playbook": "Against shares you already own, sell a call above the price. Turns rich premium into income and caps your upside at the strike.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "own", "right": "share", "strike": null, "expiry": null, "qty": 100, "mid": 165.99, "bid": null, "ask": null, "iv": null, "open_interest": null, "label": "Own 100 shares at ~165.99" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 177.5, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 0.99, "bid": 0.84, "ask": 1.14, "iv": 29.03, "open_interest": 83, "label": "Sell 1× 2026-10-02 177.5 call" } ], "expiry": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -99.0, "max_profit": 1250.0, "max_loss": 16500.0, "breakevens": [ 165.0 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.519, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit received", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~21 days to expiry — gamma risk rises fast after that", "close_by_dte": 21 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 1000.0, "contracts": 0, "risk_per_spread": 16500.0, "total_risk": 0.0, "over_budget": true, "note": "One spread already risks $16,500, above the $1,000 budget. Narrow the wings, go further out of the money, or skip it." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "covered", "note": "The short call is secured by shares you already own rather than by margin, so assignment delivers stock you hold instead of creating a short." } } ], "avoid": [ { "name": "Long straddles / strangles", "reason": "IV rank 72 and the market is pricing a 6.0% move vs 4.5% realized — you'd be paying up for the move you want." }, { "name": "Short strangle (naked)", "reason": "Open-ended risk — keep the wings on unless the chain is deep and you accept it." } ], "why": [ "IV rank 72/100 (rich premium, blended score 70).", "Options price a 6.0% move over the horizon vs 4.5% realized (1.33× IV/HV).", "Setup score 74/100, direction bullish (weak).", "Term structure in contango (+5.6% front→back)." ], "warnings": [ "The credit is only 12% of the spread width, under the 20% this scanner treats as thin compensation. Bringing the long wing closer to the short strike collects a larger share of a smaller width; otherwise pass." ] }, "long_dated": { "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "target_days": 395, "iv_annual": 30.43, "front_iv_annual": 29.99, "liquidity": "poor", "atm_spread_pct": 14.1, "atm_open_interest": 47, "premium_state": "rich", "bias": "bullish", "bias_strength": "weak", "preferred": "leaps_bull_put", "summary": "The bullish lean plus rich premium points at the LEAPS Bull Put Spread on the 2027-09-17 expiry (371 days out).", "candidates": [ { "key": "leaps_bull_call", "name": "LEAPS Bull Call Spread", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "A year of room for the upside thesis, at a cost that is fixed the day you put it on.", "playbook": "Buy a call about 13 months out, sell a higher one in the same expiry. A bullish position with a year to be right and a cost you know on day one — the short leg pays for part of the long one and caps the win.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 165.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 20.925, "bid": 19.45, "ask": 22.4, "iv": 33.0, "open_interest": 47, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 165 call" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 190.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 11.175, "bid": 10.5, "ask": 11.85, "iv": 30.54, "open_interest": 103, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 190 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 975.0, "max_profit": 1525.0, "max_loss": 975.0, "breakevens": [ 174.75 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.374, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "take 50–70% of the maximum profit — the last of it takes months to arrive", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit, or sooner if the reason you put it on stops being true", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll or close with ~90 days left; the final quarter is where a long-dated spread loses its remaining time value fastest", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 2, "risk_per_spread": 975.0, "total_risk": 1950.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "2× risks $1,950 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, { "key": "poor_mans_covered_call", "name": "Poor Man's Covered Call", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "Own the year cheaply through a deep in-the-money call, and rent the near month out against it every cycle.", "playbook": "Buy a deep in-the-money call 13 months out as a cheaper stand-in for 100 shares, then sell a near-dated call against it and roll that short leg each month. Covered-call income on a fraction of the capital — and the long call, not stock, is what secures it.", "vega": "long", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 135.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 38.375, "bid": 37.0, "ask": 39.75, "iv": 34.36, "open_interest": 5, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 135 call" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 177.5, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 0.99, "bid": 0.84, "ask": 1.14, "iv": 29.03, "open_interest": 83, "label": "Sell 1× 2026-10-02 177.5 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": 21, "net": 3738.5, "max_profit": 511.5, "max_loss": 3738.5, "breakevens": [ 172.38 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": null, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "roll the short call out each month for a fresh credit; take the whole position off at 50–70% of the maximum", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut if the long call loses half its value — the thesis is gone, not just early", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll the long leg with ~90 days left. Never let the short call go to assignment while you still want the long one.", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 0, "risk_per_spread": 3738.5, "total_risk": 0.0, "over_budget": true, "note": "One spread already risks $3,738, above the $2,500 budget. Narrow the wings, go further out of the money, or skip it." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "option_covered", "note": "The short call is secured by the long call, not by shares and not by margin: assignment is covered by exercising or selling the long leg. That is why the whole position can only lose the debit — and why the long leg must never be closed first." } }, { "key": "leaps_bull_put", "name": "LEAPS Bull Put Spread", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "Paid up front to be right about a direction over a year, with the loss capped by the long wing — but the capital is committed for that whole year.", "playbook": "Sell a long-dated put well below the price, buy a lower one for protection. You collect the credit up front and keep it if the stock holds up — but the capital is committed for a year and the decay arrives mostly at the end.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "sell", "right": "put", "strike": 135.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 6.175, "bid": 5.7, "ask": 6.65, "iv": 30.05, "open_interest": 110, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 135 put" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 125.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 4.1, "bid": 3.8, "ask": 4.4, "iv": 30.9, "open_interest": 62, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 125 put" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -207.5, "max_profit": 207.5, "max_loss": 792.5, "breakevens": [ 132.93 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.716, "credit_to_width": 0.207, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit — usually long before expiry", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~90 days to expiry, before gamma starts to matter", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 3, "risk_per_spread": 792.5, "total_risk": 2377.5, "over_budget": false, "note": "3× risks $2,378 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "short_premium", "note": "You collect a premium for taking on an obligation, held against margin. The long wings cap the loss — without them it is open-ended." } }, { "key": "leaps_bear_put", "name": "LEAPS Bear Put Spread", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "bearish", "thesis": "A year of room for the downside thesis, at a cost that is fixed the day you put it on.", "playbook": "Buy a long-dated put, sell a lower one. The same shape pointed down: a year of room for a thesis, at a defined cost.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 165.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 17.225, "bid": 16.45, "ask": 18.0, "iv": 27.85, "open_interest": 37, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 165 put" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "put", "strike": 140.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 7.6, "bid": 7.15, "ask": 8.05, "iv": 29.67, "open_interest": 96, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 140 put" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 962.5, "max_profit": 1537.5, "max_loss": 962.5, "breakevens": [ 155.38 ], "profit_zone": "below", "pop": 0.475, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "take 50–70% of the maximum profit — the last of it takes months to arrive", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit, or sooner if the reason you put it on stops being true", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll or close with ~90 days left; the final quarter is where a long-dated spread loses its remaining time value fastest", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 2, "risk_per_spread": 962.5, "total_risk": 1925.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "2× risks $1,925 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, { "key": "leaps_bear_call", "name": "LEAPS Bear Call Spread", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bearish", "thesis": "Paid up front to be right about a direction over a year, with the loss capped by the long wing — but the capital is committed for that whole year.", "playbook": "Sell a long-dated call well above the price, buy a higher one. The credit is yours if the stock stays under the short strike for the year.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 200.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 8.825, "bid": 8.1, "ask": 9.55, "iv": 30.87, "open_interest": 7, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 200 call" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 210.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 6.825, "bid": 6.2, "ask": 7.45, "iv": 30.74, "open_interest": 6, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 210 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -200.0, "max_profit": 200.0, "max_loss": 800.0, "breakevens": [ 202.0 ], "profit_zone": "below", "pop": 0.786, "credit_to_width": 0.2, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit — usually long before expiry", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~90 days to expiry, before gamma starts to matter", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 3, "risk_per_spread": 800.0, "total_risk": 2400.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "3× risks $2,400 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "short_premium", "note": "You collect a premium for taking on an obligation, held against margin. The long wings cap the loss — without them it is open-ended." } } ], "warnings": [ "The long-dated chain is thin (ATM spread ~14% of mid, OI 47). You pay that spread on the way in and again on the way out, a year apart. Work the order at mid and expect to wait.", "IV rank 72 is a front-month reading. A 13-month contract is priced off a flatter part of the volatility surface, so 'cheap' or 'rich' here is a weaker signal than it is on the near expiry — this expiry's own ATM IV is 30%.", "About 4 earnings reports fall inside this 371-day expiry. A long-dated spread is priced through all of them; none of them is the trade.", "The Poor Man's Covered Call's max profit below is the conservative case — assigned on the very first short call. Rolling that short leg out each month is where the structure actually earns, and no figure here counts those rolls.", "The short legs can be assigned early — most often a short call the day before an ex-dividend date. Know the dividend calendar before you sell one." ] }, "screen": { "compliant": true, "industry_ok": true, "industry": "Oil & Gas Integrated", "debt_ratio": 0.06207435669872431, "cash_ratio": 0.015512729055351405, "receivables_ratio": null, "reasons": [ "ok" ] } }, { "rank": 8, "ticker": "MSFT", "price": 495.63, "score": 71.3, "squeeze_on": false, "squeeze_days": 0, "squeeze_fired": false, "fired_dir": "", "bandwidth_pctile": 0.15, "hv_annual": 21.2, "hv_pctile": 0.067, "em_pct": 4.22, "horizon_days": 10, "down_1sigma": 474.73, "up_1sigma": 516.53, "down_2sigma": 453.83, "up_2sigma": 537.43, "lean": "Neutral", "note": "", "debt_ratio": 0.03500045791038725, "cash_ratio": 0.02087941596383699, "earnings_in_days": 46, "implied_move_pct": 4.8, "vol_verdict": "fair", "iv_annual": 24.12, "iv_rank": 24.7, "premium_score": 35.1, "premium_state": "fair", "liquidity": "fair", "action": "STAND_ASIDE", "strategy": "Stand aside", "options": { "iv_annual": 24.12, "hv_annual": 21.2, "implied_move_pct": 4.8, "hist_move_pct": 4.22, "iv_rank": 24.7, "iv_percentile": 48.1, "vrp": 2.95, "iv_hv_ratio": 1.14, "verdict": "fair", "premium_score": 35.1, "premium_state": "fair", "term_slope": 0.2832, "term_structure": "contango", "skew": 0.96, "skew_label": "balanced", "atm_spread_pct": 6.9, "atm_open_interest": 1252, "liquidity": "fair", "expiry": "2026-10-02", "days_to_expiry": 21, "expiries": [ { "date": "2026-09-14", "dte": 3 }, { "date": "2026-09-16", "dte": 5 }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "dte": 7 }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "dte": 14 }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21 }, { "date": "2026-10-09", "dte": 28 }, { "date": "2026-10-16", "dte": 35 }, { "date": "2026-10-23", "dte": 42 }, { "date": "2026-11-20", "dte": 70 }, { "date": "2026-12-18", "dte": 98 }, { "date": "2027-01-15", "dte": 126 }, { "date": "2027-03-19", "dte": 189 } ], "long_expiry": "2027-09-17", "long_dte": 371, "long_iv": 32.13, "long_spread_pct": 5.3, "long_open_interest": 300, "long_liquidity": "fair" }, "recommendation": { "ticker": "MSFT", "action": "STAND_ASIDE", "headline": "MSFT: stand aside — premium is fairly priced and the chart isn't coiled enough to pay for a position.", "detail": "Premium is fairly priced and the chart isn't coiled enough to pay for a position.", "confidence": 0.0, "premium_state": "fair", "premium_score": 35.1, "bias": "neutral", "bias_strength": "none", "plan": { "key": "stand_aside", "name": "Stand aside", "action": "STAND_ASIDE", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "Premium is fairly priced and the chart isn't coiled enough to pay for a position.", "playbook": "No edge worth paying for. The best trade is often none.", "vega": "flat", "theta": "flat", "risk": "none", "legs": [], "expiry": null, "dte": null, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": null, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": null, "breakevens": [], "profit_zone": "", "pop": null, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": {}, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 1000.0, "contracts": 0 }, "risk_form": { "tier": "n/a", "note": "No position — nothing to secure." } }, "alternatives": [], "avoid": [], "why": [ "IV rank 25/100 (fair premium, blended score 35).", "Options price a 4.8% move over the horizon vs 4.2% realized (1.14× IV/HV).", "Setup score 71/100, no directional edge.", "Term structure in contango (+28.3% front→back)." ], "warnings": [] }, "long_dated": { "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "target_days": 395, "iv_annual": 32.13, "front_iv_annual": 24.12, "liquidity": "fair", "atm_spread_pct": 5.3, "atm_open_interest": 300, "premium_state": "fair", "bias": "neutral", "bias_strength": "none", "preferred": null, "summary": "4 long-dated spreads price out on the 2027-09-17 expiry, but the scanner has no directional read on this name — and every 13-month spread is a directional bet. Listed for reference, not recommended.", "candidates": [ { "key": "leaps_bull_call", "name": "LEAPS Bull Call Spread", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "A year of room for the upside thesis, at a cost that is fixed the day you put it on.", "playbook": "Buy a call about 13 months out, sell a higher one in the same expiry. A bullish position with a year to be right and a cost you know on day one — the short leg pays for part of the long one and caps the win.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 495.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 72.425, "bid": 70.5, "ask": 74.35, "iv": 37.32, "open_interest": 300, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 495 call" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 570.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 42.325, "bid": 41.3, "ask": 43.35, "iv": 35.05, "open_interest": 200, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 570 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 3010.0, "max_profit": 4490.0, "max_loss": 3010.0, "breakevens": [ 525.1 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.367, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "take 50–70% of the maximum profit — the last of it takes months to arrive", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit, or sooner if the reason you put it on stops being true", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll or close with ~90 days left; the final quarter is where a long-dated spread loses its remaining time value fastest", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 0, "risk_per_spread": 3010.0, "total_risk": 0.0, "over_budget": true, "note": "One spread already risks $3,010, above the $2,500 budget. Narrow the wings, go further out of the money, or skip it." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, { "key": "leaps_bull_put", "name": "LEAPS Bull Put Spread", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "Paid up front to be right about a direction over a year, with the loss capped by the long wing — but the capital is committed for that whole year.", "playbook": "Sell a long-dated put well below the price, buy a lower one for protection. You collect the credit up front and keep it if the stock holds up — but the capital is committed for a year and the decay arrives mostly at the end.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "sell", "right": "put", "strike": 395.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 17.15, "bid": 16.65, "ask": 17.65, "iv": 30.14, "open_interest": 136, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 395 put" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 365.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 11.325, "bid": 11.0, "ask": 11.65, "iv": 31.17, "open_interest": 313, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 365 put" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -582.5, "max_profit": 582.5, "max_loss": 2417.5, "breakevens": [ 389.18 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.721, "credit_to_width": 0.194, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit — usually long before expiry", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~90 days to expiry, before gamma starts to matter", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 2417.5, "total_risk": 2417.5, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $2,418 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "short_premium", "note": "You collect a premium for taking on an obligation, held against margin. The long wings cap the loss — without them it is open-ended." } }, { "key": "leaps_bear_put", "name": "LEAPS Bear Put Spread", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "bearish", "thesis": "A year of room for the downside thesis, at a cost that is fixed the day you put it on.", "playbook": "Buy a long-dated put, sell a lower one. The same shape pointed down: a year of room for a thesis, at a defined cost.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 495.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 52.075, "bid": 50.9, "ask": 53.25, "iv": 26.95, "open_interest": 316, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 495 put" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "put", "strike": 420.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 23.15, "bid": 21.65, "ask": 24.65, "iv": 29.63, "open_interest": 674, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 420 put" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 2892.5, "max_profit": 4607.5, "max_loss": 2892.5, "breakevens": [ 466.07 ], "profit_zone": "below", "pop": 0.489, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "take 50–70% of the maximum profit — the last of it takes months to arrive", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit, or sooner if the reason you put it on stops being true", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll or close with ~90 days left; the final quarter is where a long-dated spread loses its remaining time value fastest", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 0, "risk_per_spread": 2892.5, "total_risk": 0.0, "over_budget": true, "note": "One spread already risks $2,892, above the $2,500 budget. Narrow the wings, go further out of the money, or skip it." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, { "key": "leaps_bear_call", "name": "LEAPS Bear Call Spread", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bearish", "thesis": "Paid up front to be right about a direction over a year, with the loss capped by the long wing — but the capital is committed for that whole year.", "playbook": "Sell a long-dated call well above the price, buy a higher one. The credit is yours if the stock stays under the short strike for the year.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 595.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 35.325, "bid": 34.6, "ask": 36.05, "iv": 34.67, "open_interest": 194, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 595 call" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 625.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 27.925, "bid": 26.45, "ask": 29.4, "iv": 34.67, "open_interest": 475, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 625 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -740.0, "max_profit": 740.0, "max_loss": 2260.0, "breakevens": [ 602.4 ], "profit_zone": "below", "pop": 0.778, "credit_to_width": 0.247, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit — usually long before expiry", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~90 days to expiry, before gamma starts to matter", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 2260.0, "total_risk": 2260.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $2,260 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "short_premium", "note": "You collect a premium for taking on an obligation, held against margin. The long wings cap the loss — without them it is open-ended." } } ], "warnings": [ "IV rank 25 is a front-month reading. A 13-month contract is priced off a flatter part of the volatility surface, so 'cheap' or 'rich' here is a weaker signal than it is on the near expiry — this expiry's own ATM IV is 32%.", "About 4 earnings reports fall inside this 371-day expiry. A long-dated spread is priced through all of them; none of them is the trade.", "One of these credit spreads collects very little for the risk — the LEAPS Bull Put Spread takes only 19% of its width, and holds the capital for 371 days to do it. Widen the wings or pass.", "The short legs can be assigned early — most often a short call the day before an ex-dividend date. Know the dividend calendar before you sell one." ] }, "screen": { "compliant": true, "industry_ok": true, "industry": "Software - Infrastructure", "debt_ratio": 0.03500045791038725, "cash_ratio": 0.02087941596383699, "receivables_ratio": null, "reasons": [ "ok" ] } }, { "rank": 9, "ticker": "AVGO", "price": 361.99, "score": 70.5, "squeeze_on": false, "squeeze_days": 0, "squeeze_fired": false, "fired_dir": "", "bandwidth_pctile": 0.15, "hv_annual": 36.9, "hv_pctile": 0.083, "em_pct": 7.36, "horizon_days": 10, "down_1sigma": 335.35, "up_1sigma": 388.63, "down_2sigma": 308.72, "up_2sigma": 415.26, "lean": "Bearish", "note": "", "debt_ratio": 0.03438587000466184, "cash_ratio": 0.013874370555192564, "earnings_in_days": 88, "implied_move_pct": 6.97, "vol_verdict": "fair", "iv_annual": 35.01, "iv_rank": 11.9, "premium_score": 18.9, "premium_state": "cheap", "liquidity": "fair", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "strategy": "Long Straddle", "options": { "iv_annual": 35.01, "hv_annual": 36.9, "implied_move_pct": 6.97, "hist_move_pct": 7.36, "iv_rank": 11.9, "iv_percentile": 9.5, "vrp": -1.93, "iv_hv_ratio": 0.95, "verdict": "fair", "premium_score": 18.9, "premium_state": "cheap", "term_slope": 0.1083, "term_structure": "contango", "skew": 0.46, "skew_label": "balanced", "atm_spread_pct": 12.6, "atm_open_interest": 1404, "liquidity": "fair", "expiry": "2026-10-02", "days_to_expiry": 21, "expiries": [ { "date": "2026-09-14", "dte": 3 }, { "date": "2026-09-16", "dte": 5 }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "dte": 7 }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "dte": 14 }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21 }, { "date": "2026-10-09", "dte": 28 }, { "date": "2026-10-16", "dte": 35 }, { "date": "2026-10-23", "dte": 42 }, { "date": "2026-11-20", "dte": 70 }, { "date": "2026-12-18", "dte": 98 }, { "date": "2027-01-15", "dte": 126 }, { "date": "2027-02-19", "dte": 161 } ], "long_expiry": "2027-09-17", "long_dte": 371, "long_iv": 44.89, "long_spread_pct": 5.7, "long_open_interest": 671, "long_liquidity": "good" }, "recommendation": { "ticker": "AVGO", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "headline": "AVGO: BUY premium — IV rank 12, cheap → Long Straddle", "detail": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 360 call; Buy 1× 2026-10-02 360 put — net debit $2,302.50 per spread", "confidence": 0.69, "premium_state": "cheap", "premium_score": 18.9, "bias": "bearish", "bias_strength": "weak", "plan": { "key": "long_straddle", "name": "Long Straddle", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "Options are cheap and the chart is coiled — pay for the move, either direction.", "playbook": "Buy the at-the-money call and the at-the-money put. You win if the move is big enough, either way; you lose if it sits still. The trade for cheap options in front of a coiled chart.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 360.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 12.325, "bid": 11.55, "ask": 13.1, "iv": 34.17, "open_interest": 1404, "label": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 360 call" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 360.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 10.7, "bid": 9.7, "ask": 11.7, "iv": 35.85, "open_interest": 1792, "label": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 360 put" } ], "expiry": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 2302.5, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": 2302.5, "breakevens": [ 336.98, 383.02 ], "profit_zone": "outside", "pop": 0.446, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "close at +50% to +100% of the debit", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "be out with ~7 days to expiry — theta accelerates into the last week", "close_by_dte": 7 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 1000.0, "contracts": 0, "risk_per_spread": 2302.5, "total_risk": 0.0, "over_budget": true, "note": "One spread already risks $2,302, above the $1,000 budget. Narrow the wings, go further out of the money, or skip it." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, "alternatives": [ { "key": "long_strangle", "name": "Long Strangle", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "Cheap options plus a coiled chart — the budget version of the both-ways bet.", "playbook": "Buy an out-of-the-money call and an out-of-the-money put. Cheaper than a straddle and needs a bigger move to pay — the budget version of the same both-ways bet.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 385.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 4.2, "bid": 4.0, "ask": 4.4, "iv": 34.83, "open_interest": 712, "label": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 385 call" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 340.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 3.9, "bid": 3.3, "ask": 4.5, "iv": 36.52, "open_interest": 710, "label": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 340 put" } ], "expiry": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 810.0, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": 810.0, "breakevens": [ 331.9, 393.1 ], "profit_zone": "outside", "pop": 0.314, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "close at +50% to +100% of the debit", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "be out with ~7 days to expiry — theta accelerates into the last week", "close_by_dte": 7 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 1000.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 810.0, "total_risk": 810.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $810 of a $1,000 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, { "key": "bear_put_spread", "name": "Bear Put Spread", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "bearish", "thesis": "Options are reasonably priced and the break is down — pay a capped premium for a capped move.", "playbook": "Buy a put, sell a lower one. A capped, cheaper bearish bet.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 360.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 10.7, "bid": 9.7, "ask": 11.7, "iv": 35.85, "open_interest": 1792, "label": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 360 put" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "put", "strike": 330.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 2.0, "bid": 1.81, "ask": 2.19, "iv": 35.3, "open_interest": 1254, "label": "Sell 1× 2026-10-02 330 put" } ], "expiry": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 870.0, "max_profit": 2130.0, "max_loss": 870.0, "breakevens": [ 351.3 ], "profit_zone": "below", "pop": 0.376, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "close at +50% to +100% of the debit", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "be out with ~7 days to expiry — theta accelerates into the last week", "close_by_dte": 7 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 1000.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 870.0, "total_risk": 870.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $870 of a $1,000 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } } ], "avoid": [ { "name": "Selling premium (condors, credit spreads)", "reason": "IV rank 12 — you'd collect too little for the risk." } ], "why": [ "IV rank 12/100 (cheap premium, blended score 19).", "Options price a 7.0% move over the horizon vs 7.4% realized (0.95× IV/HV).", "Setup score 70/100, direction bearish (weak).", "Term structure in contango (+10.8% front→back)." ], "warnings": [] }, "long_dated": { "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "target_days": 395, "iv_annual": 44.89, "front_iv_annual": 35.01, "liquidity": "good", "atm_spread_pct": 5.7, "atm_open_interest": 671, "premium_state": "cheap", "bias": "bearish", "bias_strength": "weak", "preferred": "leaps_bear_put", "summary": "The bearish lean plus cheap premium points at the LEAPS Bear Put Spread on the 2027-09-17 expiry (371 days out).", "candidates": [ { "key": "leaps_bull_call", "name": "LEAPS Bull Call Spread", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "A year of room for the upside thesis, at a cost that is fixed the day you put it on.", "playbook": "Buy a call about 13 months out, sell a higher one in the same expiry. A bullish position with a year to be right and a cost you know on day one — the short leg pays for part of the long one and caps the win.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 360.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 70.725, "bid": 68.7, "ask": 72.75, "iv": 49.86, "open_interest": 671, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 360 call" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 420.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 49.2, "bid": 47.9, "ask": 50.5, "iv": 48.84, "open_interest": 406, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 420 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 2152.5, "max_profit": 3847.5, "max_loss": 2152.5, "breakevens": [ 381.52 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.366, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "take 50–70% of the maximum profit — the last of it takes months to arrive", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit, or sooner if the reason you put it on stops being true", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll or close with ~90 days left; the final quarter is where a long-dated spread loses its remaining time value fastest", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 2152.5, "total_risk": 2152.5, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $2,152 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, { "key": "leaps_bull_put", "name": "LEAPS Bull Put Spread", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "Paid up front to be right about a direction over a year, with the loss capped by the long wing — but the capital is committed for that whole year.", "playbook": "Sell a long-dated put well below the price, buy a lower one for protection. You collect the credit up front and keep it if the stock holds up — but the capital is committed for a year and the decay arrives mostly at the end.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "sell", "right": "put", "strike": 290.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 23.775, "bid": 23.0, "ask": 24.55, "iv": 40.78, "open_interest": 629, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 290 put" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 260.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 15.475, "bid": 14.6, "ask": 16.35, "iv": 42.43, "open_interest": 1358, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 260 put" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -830.0, "max_profit": 830.0, "max_loss": 2170.0, "breakevens": [ 281.7 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.628, "credit_to_width": 0.277, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit — usually long before expiry", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~90 days to expiry, before gamma starts to matter", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 2170.0, "total_risk": 2170.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $2,170 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "short_premium", "note": "You collect a premium for taking on an obligation, held against margin. The long wings cap the loss — without them it is open-ended." } }, { "key": "leaps_bear_put", "name": "LEAPS Bear Put Spread", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "bearish", "thesis": "A year of room for the downside thesis, at a cost that is fixed the day you put it on.", "playbook": "Buy a long-dated put, sell a lower one. The same shape pointed down: a year of room for a thesis, at a defined cost.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 360.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 55.0, "bid": 53.35, "ask": 56.65, "iv": 39.93, "open_interest": 561, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 360 put" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "put", "strike": 310.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 30.8, "bid": 29.8, "ask": 31.8, "iv": 40.16, "open_interest": 419, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 310 put" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 2420.0, "max_profit": 2580.0, "max_loss": 2420.0, "breakevens": [ 335.8 ], "profit_zone": "below", "pop": 0.524, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "take 50–70% of the maximum profit — the last of it takes months to arrive", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit, or sooner if the reason you put it on stops being true", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll or close with ~90 days left; the final quarter is where a long-dated spread loses its remaining time value fastest", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 2420.0, "total_risk": 2420.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $2,420 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, { "key": "leaps_bear_call", "name": "LEAPS Bear Call Spread", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bearish", "thesis": "Paid up front to be right about a direction over a year, with the loss capped by the long wing — but the capital is committed for that whole year.", "playbook": "Sell a long-dated call well above the price, buy a higher one. The credit is yours if the stock stays under the short strike for the year.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 430.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 46.275, "bid": 45.15, "ask": 47.4, "iv": 48.66, "open_interest": 552, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 430 call" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 460.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 38.525, "bid": 37.2, "ask": 39.85, "iv": 48.69, "open_interest": 2468, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 460 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -775.0, "max_profit": 775.0, "max_loss": 2225.0, "breakevens": [ 437.75 ], "profit_zone": "below", "pop": 0.741, "credit_to_width": 0.258, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit — usually long before expiry", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~90 days to expiry, before gamma starts to matter", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 2225.0, "total_risk": 2225.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $2,225 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "short_premium", "note": "You collect a premium for taking on an obligation, held against margin. The long wings cap the loss — without them it is open-ended." } } ], "warnings": [ "IV rank 12 is a front-month reading. A 13-month contract is priced off a flatter part of the volatility surface, so 'cheap' or 'rich' here is a weaker signal than it is on the near expiry — this expiry's own ATM IV is 45%.", "About 4 earnings reports fall inside this 371-day expiry. A long-dated spread is priced through all of them; none of them is the trade.", "The short legs can be assigned early — most often a short call the day before an ex-dividend date. Know the dividend calendar before you sell one." ] }, "screen": { "compliant": true, "industry_ok": true, "industry": "Semiconductors", "debt_ratio": 0.03438587000466184, "cash_ratio": 0.013874370555192564, "receivables_ratio": null, "reasons": [ "ok" ] } }, { "rank": 10, "ticker": "CVX", "price": 214.06, "score": 69.4, "squeeze_on": false, "squeeze_days": 0, "squeeze_fired": false, "fired_dir": "", "bandwidth_pctile": 0.275, "hv_annual": 17.2, "hv_pctile": 0.033, "em_pct": 3.42, "horizon_days": 10, "down_1sigma": 206.73, "up_1sigma": 221.39, "down_2sigma": 199.41, "up_2sigma": 228.71, "lean": "Bullish", "note": "", "debt_ratio": 0.08829466342280486, "cash_ratio": 0.0203143207118641, "earnings_in_days": 48, "implied_move_pct": 5.32, "vol_verdict": "rich", "iv_annual": 26.72, "iv_rank": 76.4, "premium_score": 77.6, "premium_state": "rich", "liquidity": "fair", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "strategy": "Bull Put Spread", "options": { "iv_annual": 26.72, "hv_annual": 17.2, "implied_move_pct": 5.32, "hist_move_pct": 3.42, "iv_rank": 76.4, "iv_percentile": 73.6, "vrp": 9.54, "iv_hv_ratio": 1.56, "verdict": "rich", "premium_score": 77.6, "premium_state": "rich", "term_slope": 0.1126, "term_structure": "contango", "skew": 1.06, "skew_label": "balanced", "atm_spread_pct": 9.0, "atm_open_interest": 829, "liquidity": "fair", "expiry": "2026-10-02", "days_to_expiry": 21, "expiries": [ { "date": "2026-09-18", "dte": 7 }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "dte": 14 }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21 }, { "date": "2026-10-09", "dte": 28 }, { "date": "2026-10-16", "dte": 35 }, { "date": "2026-10-23", "dte": 42 }, { "date": "2026-11-20", "dte": 70 }, { "date": "2026-12-18", "dte": 98 }, { "date": "2027-01-15", "dte": 126 }, { "date": "2027-03-19", "dte": 189 }, { "date": "2027-06-17", "dte": 279 }, { "date": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371 } ], "long_expiry": "2027-09-17", "long_dte": 371, "long_iv": 28.7, "long_spread_pct": 16.1, "long_open_interest": 22, "long_liquidity": "poor" }, "recommendation": { "ticker": "CVX", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "headline": "CVX: SELL premium — IV rank 76, rich → Bull Put Spread", "detail": "Sell 1× 2026-10-02 200 put; Buy 1× 2026-10-02 190 put — net credit $77.00 per spread", "confidence": 0.69, "premium_state": "rich", "premium_score": 77.6, "bias": "bullish", "bias_strength": "weak", "plan": { "key": "bull_put_spread", "name": "Bull Put Spread", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "Premium is rich and the lean is up — get paid to be right about a direction you don't need to nail.", "playbook": "Sell a put, buy a lower one. You collect credit and win if the stock stays above the short put — a bullish way to be short rich premium.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "sell", "right": "put", "strike": 200.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 1.02, "bid": 0.71, "ask": 1.33, "iv": 28.94, "open_interest": 634, "label": "Sell 1× 2026-10-02 200 put" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 190.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 0.25, "bid": 0.1, "ask": 0.4, "iv": 31.25, "open_interest": 72, "label": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 190 put" } ], "expiry": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -77.0, "max_profit": 77.0, "max_loss": 923.0, "breakevens": [ 199.23 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.862, "credit_to_width": 0.077, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit received", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~21 days to expiry — gamma risk rises fast after that", "close_by_dte": 21 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 1000.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 923.0, "total_risk": 923.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $923 of a $1,000 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "short_premium", "note": "You collect a premium for taking on an obligation, held against margin. The long wings cap the loss — without them it is open-ended." } }, "alternatives": [ { "key": "covered_call", "name": "Covered Call", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "Rich premium against shares you already hold — income, with the upside capped.", "playbook": "Against shares you already own, sell a call above the price. Turns rich premium into income and caps your upside at the strike.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "own", "right": "share", "strike": null, "expiry": null, "qty": 100, "mid": 214.06, "bid": null, "ask": null, "iv": null, "open_interest": null, "label": "Own 100 shares at ~214.06" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 230.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 0.91, "bid": 0.67, "ask": 1.15, "iv": 27.88, "open_interest": 263, "label": "Sell 1× 2026-10-02 230 call" } ], "expiry": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -91.0, "max_profit": 1685.0, "max_loss": 21315.0, "breakevens": [ 213.15 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.514, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit received", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~21 days to expiry — gamma risk rises fast after that", "close_by_dte": 21 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 1000.0, "contracts": 0, "risk_per_spread": 21315.0, "total_risk": 0.0, "over_budget": true, "note": "One spread already risks $21,315, above the $1,000 budget. Narrow the wings, go further out of the money, or skip it." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "covered", "note": "The short call is secured by shares you already own rather than by margin, so assignment delivers stock you hold instead of creating a short." } } ], "avoid": [ { "name": "Long straddles / strangles", "reason": "IV rank 76 and the market is pricing a 5.3% move vs 3.4% realized — you'd be paying up for the move you want." }, { "name": "Short strangle (naked)", "reason": "Open-ended risk — keep the wings on unless the chain is deep and you accept it." } ], "why": [ "IV rank 76/100 (rich premium, blended score 78).", "Options price a 5.3% move over the horizon vs 3.4% realized (1.56× IV/HV).", "Setup score 69/100, direction bullish (weak).", "Term structure in contango (+11.3% front→back)." ], "warnings": [ "The credit is only 8% of the spread width, under the 20% this scanner treats as thin compensation. Bringing the long wing closer to the short strike collects a larger share of a smaller width; otherwise pass." ] }, "long_dated": { "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "target_days": 395, "iv_annual": 28.7, "front_iv_annual": 26.72, "liquidity": "poor", "atm_spread_pct": 16.1, "atm_open_interest": 22, "premium_state": "rich", "bias": "bullish", "bias_strength": "weak", "preferred": "leaps_bull_put", "summary": "The bullish lean plus rich premium points at the LEAPS Bull Put Spread on the 2027-09-17 expiry (371 days out).", "candidates": [ { "key": "leaps_bull_call", "name": "LEAPS Bull Call Spread", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "A year of room for the upside thesis, at a cost that is fixed the day you put it on.", "playbook": "Buy a call about 13 months out, sell a higher one in the same expiry. A bullish position with a year to be right and a cost you know on day one — the short leg pays for part of the long one and caps the win.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 210.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 26.1, "bid": 24.0, "ask": 28.2, "iv": 30.7, "open_interest": 22, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 210 call" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 250.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 11.675, "bid": 10.7, "ask": 12.65, "iv": 28.92, "open_interest": 30, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 250 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 1442.5, "max_profit": 2557.5, "max_loss": 1442.5, "breakevens": [ 224.43 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.379, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "take 50–70% of the maximum profit — the last of it takes months to arrive", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit, or sooner if the reason you put it on stops being true", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll or close with ~90 days left; the final quarter is where a long-dated spread loses its remaining time value fastest", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 1442.5, "total_risk": 1442.5, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $1,442 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, { "key": "poor_mans_covered_call", "name": "Poor Man's Covered Call", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "Own the year cheaply through a deep in-the-money call, and rent the near month out against it every cycle.", "playbook": "Buy a deep in-the-money call 13 months out as a cheaper stand-in for 100 shares, then sell a near-dated call against it and roll that short leg each month. Covered-call income on a fraction of the capital — and the long call, not stock, is what secures it.", "vega": "long", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 170.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 51.525, "bid": 49.5, "ask": 53.55, "iv": 33.57, "open_interest": 3, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 170 call" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 230.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 0.91, "bid": 0.67, "ask": 1.15, "iv": 27.88, "open_interest": 263, "label": "Sell 1× 2026-10-02 230 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": 21, "net": 5061.5, "max_profit": 938.5, "max_loss": 5061.5, "breakevens": [ 220.62 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": null, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "roll the short call out each month for a fresh credit; take the whole position off at 50–70% of the maximum", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut if the long call loses half its value — the thesis is gone, not just early", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll the long leg with ~90 days left. Never let the short call go to assignment while you still want the long one.", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 0, "risk_per_spread": 5061.5, "total_risk": 0.0, "over_budget": true, "note": "One spread already risks $5,062, above the $2,500 budget. Narrow the wings, go further out of the money, or skip it." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "option_covered", "note": "The short call is secured by the long call, not by shares and not by margin: assignment is covered by exercising or selling the long leg. That is why the whole position can only lose the debit — and why the long leg must never be closed first." } }, { "key": "leaps_bull_put", "name": "LEAPS Bull Put Spread", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "Paid up front to be right about a direction over a year, with the loss capped by the long wing — but the capital is committed for that whole year.", "playbook": "Sell a long-dated put well below the price, buy a lower one for protection. You collect the credit up front and keep it if the stock holds up — but the capital is committed for a year and the decay arrives mostly at the end.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "sell", "right": "put", "strike": 170.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 6.1, "bid": 4.95, "ask": 7.25, "iv": 29.77, "open_interest": 1, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 170 put" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 150.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 2.93, "bid": 2.71, "ask": 3.15, "iv": 29.91, "open_interest": 60, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 150 put" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -317.0, "max_profit": 317.0, "max_loss": 1683.0, "breakevens": [ 166.83 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.763, "credit_to_width": 0.159, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit — usually long before expiry", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~90 days to expiry, before gamma starts to matter", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 1683.0, "total_risk": 1683.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $1,683 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "short_premium", "note": "You collect a premium for taking on an obligation, held against margin. The long wings cap the loss — without them it is open-ended." } }, { "key": "leaps_bear_put", "name": "LEAPS Bear Put Spread", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "bearish", "thesis": "A year of room for the downside thesis, at a cost that is fixed the day you put it on.", "playbook": "Buy a long-dated put, sell a lower one. The same shape pointed down: a year of room for a thesis, at a defined cost.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 210.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 19.35, "bid": 17.95, "ask": 20.75, "iv": 26.7, "open_interest": 59, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 210 put" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "put", "strike": 180.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 8.525, "bid": 7.95, "ask": 9.1, "iv": 27.99, "open_interest": 508, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 180 put" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 1082.5, "max_profit": 1917.5, "max_loss": 1082.5, "breakevens": [ 199.18 ], "profit_zone": "below", "pop": 0.458, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "take 50–70% of the maximum profit — the last of it takes months to arrive", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit, or sooner if the reason you put it on stops being true", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll or close with ~90 days left; the final quarter is where a long-dated spread loses its remaining time value fastest", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 2, "risk_per_spread": 1082.5, "total_risk": 2165.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "2× risks $2,165 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, { "key": "leaps_bear_call", "name": "LEAPS Bear Call Spread", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bearish", "thesis": "Paid up front to be right about a direction over a year, with the loss capped by the long wing — but the capital is committed for that whole year.", "playbook": "Sell a long-dated call well above the price, buy a higher one. The credit is yours if the stock stays under the short strike for the year.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 260.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 9.325, "bid": 8.65, "ask": 10.0, "iv": 28.43, "open_interest": 15, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 260 call" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 280.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 6.35, "bid": 5.2, "ask": 7.5, "iv": 29.87, "open_interest": 2, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 280 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -297.5, "max_profit": 297.5, "max_loss": 1702.5, "breakevens": [ 262.98 ], "profit_zone": "below", "pop": 0.804, "credit_to_width": 0.149, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit — usually long before expiry", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~90 days to expiry, before gamma starts to matter", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 1702.5, "total_risk": 1702.5, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $1,702 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "short_premium", "note": "You collect a premium for taking on an obligation, held against margin. The long wings cap the loss — without them it is open-ended." } } ], "warnings": [ "The long-dated chain is thin (ATM spread ~16% of mid, OI 22). You pay that spread on the way in and again on the way out, a year apart. Work the order at mid and expect to wait.", "IV rank 76 is a front-month reading. A 13-month contract is priced off a flatter part of the volatility surface, so 'cheap' or 'rich' here is a weaker signal than it is on the near expiry — this expiry's own ATM IV is 29%.", "About 4 earnings reports fall inside this 371-day expiry. A long-dated spread is priced through all of them; none of them is the trade.", "Some of these credit spreads collect very little for the risk — the LEAPS Bear Call Spread takes only 15% of its width, and holds the capital for 371 days to do it. Widen the wings or pass.", "The Poor Man's Covered Call's max profit below is the conservative case — assigned on the very first short call. Rolling that short leg out each month is where the structure actually earns, and no figure here counts those rolls.", "The short legs can be assigned early — most often a short call the day before an ex-dividend date. Know the dividend calendar before you sell one." ] }, "screen": { "compliant": true, "industry_ok": true, "industry": "Oil & Gas Integrated", "debt_ratio": 0.08829466342280486, "cash_ratio": 0.0203143207118641, "receivables_ratio": null, "reasons": [ "ok" ] } }, { "rank": 11, "ticker": "LRCX", "price": 298.22, "score": 68.8, "squeeze_on": false, "squeeze_days": 0, "squeeze_fired": false, "fired_dir": "", "bandwidth_pctile": 0.108, "hv_annual": 50.7, "hv_pctile": 0.142, "em_pct": 10.11, "horizon_days": 10, "down_1sigma": 268.08, "up_1sigma": 328.36, "down_2sigma": 237.94, "up_2sigma": 358.5, "lean": "Bearish", "note": "", "debt_ratio": 0.011044769774877741, "cash_ratio": 0.014950791331422351, "earnings_in_days": 39, "implied_move_pct": 10.55, "vol_verdict": "fair", "iv_annual": 52.94, "iv_rank": 18.4, "premium_score": 26.9, "premium_state": "cheap", "liquidity": "poor", "action": "STAND_ASIDE", "strategy": "Stand aside", "options": { "iv_annual": 52.94, "hv_annual": 50.7, "implied_move_pct": 10.55, "hist_move_pct": 10.11, "iv_rank": 18.4, "iv_percentile": 33.8, "vrp": 2.21, "iv_hv_ratio": 1.04, "verdict": "fair", "premium_score": 26.9, "premium_state": "cheap", "term_slope": 0.1458, "term_structure": "contango", "skew": -1.6, "skew_label": "balanced", "atm_spread_pct": 17.3, "atm_open_interest": 140, "liquidity": "poor", "expiry": "2026-10-02", "days_to_expiry": 21, "expiries": [ { "date": "2026-09-18", "dte": 7 }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "dte": 14 }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21 }, { "date": "2026-10-09", "dte": 28 }, { "date": "2026-10-16", "dte": 35 }, { "date": "2026-10-23", "dte": 42 }, { "date": "2026-11-20", "dte": 70 }, { "date": "2026-12-18", "dte": 98 }, { "date": "2027-01-15", "dte": 126 }, { "date": "2027-03-19", "dte": 189 }, { "date": "2027-06-17", "dte": 279 }, { "date": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371 } ], "long_expiry": "2027-09-17", "long_dte": 371, "long_iv": 59.85, "long_spread_pct": 5.3, "long_open_interest": 34, "long_liquidity": "poor" }, "recommendation": { "ticker": "LRCX", "action": "STAND_ASIDE", "headline": "LRCX: stand aside — the options are too illiquid to trade: the at-the-money bid/ask is ~17% of mid. Premium looks cheap, but you would give the edge back on the fills.", "detail": "The options are too illiquid to trade: the at-the-money bid/ask is ~17% of mid. Premium looks cheap, but you would give the edge back on the fills.", "confidence": 0.0, "premium_state": "cheap", "premium_score": 26.9, "bias": "bearish", "bias_strength": "weak", "plan": { "key": "stand_aside", "name": "Stand aside", "action": "STAND_ASIDE", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "The options are too illiquid to trade: the at-the-money bid/ask is ~17% of mid. Premium looks cheap, but you would give the edge back on the fills.", "playbook": "No edge worth paying for. The best trade is often none.", "vega": "flat", "theta": "flat", "risk": "none", "legs": [], "expiry": null, "dte": null, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": null, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": null, "breakevens": [], "profit_zone": "", "pop": null, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": {}, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 1000.0, "contracts": 0 }, "risk_form": { "tier": "n/a", "note": "No position — nothing to secure." } }, "alternatives": [], "avoid": [ { "name": "Any multi-leg spread here", "reason": "The at-the-money bid/ask is ~17% of mid — slippage on entry and exit would cost more than the edge." } ], "why": [ "IV rank 18/100 (cheap premium, blended score 27).", "Options price a 10.6% move over the horizon vs 10.1% realized (1.04× IV/HV).", "Setup score 69/100, direction bearish (weak).", "Term structure in contango (+14.6% front→back)." ], "warnings": [ "Thin options market (ATM spread ~17% of mid, OI 140) — the bid/ask will eat a multi-leg spread. Use limit orders at mid, or skip it." ] }, "long_dated": { "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "target_days": 395, "iv_annual": 59.85, "front_iv_annual": 52.94, "liquidity": "poor", "atm_spread_pct": 5.3, "atm_open_interest": 34, "premium_state": "cheap", "bias": "bearish", "bias_strength": "weak", "preferred": "leaps_bear_put", "summary": "The bearish lean plus cheap premium points at the LEAPS Bear Put Spread on the 2027-09-17 expiry (371 days out).", "candidates": [ { "key": "leaps_bull_call", "name": "LEAPS Bull Call Spread", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "A year of room for the upside thesis, at a cost that is fixed the day you put it on.", "playbook": "Buy a call about 13 months out, sell a higher one in the same expiry. A bullish position with a year to be right and a cost you know on day one — the short leg pays for part of the long one and caps the win.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 300.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 76.0, "bid": 74.0, "ask": 78.0, "iv": 64.96, "open_interest": 34, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 300 call" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 340.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 62.225, "bid": 60.45, "ask": 64.0, "iv": 64.55, "open_interest": 1, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 340 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 1377.5, "max_profit": 2622.5, "max_loss": 1377.5, "breakevens": [ 313.77 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.35, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "take 50–70% of the maximum profit — the last of it takes months to arrive", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit, or sooner if the reason you put it on stops being true", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll or close with ~90 days left; the final quarter is where a long-dated spread loses its remaining time value fastest", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 1377.5, "total_risk": 1377.5, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $1,378 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, { "key": "leaps_bull_put", "name": "LEAPS Bull Put Spread", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "Paid up front to be right about a direction over a year, with the loss capped by the long wing — but the capital is committed for that whole year.", "playbook": "Sell a long-dated put well below the price, buy a lower one for protection. You collect the credit up front and keep it if the stock holds up — but the capital is committed for a year and the decay arrives mostly at the end.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "sell", "right": "put", "strike": 240.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 35.0, "bid": 33.5, "ask": 36.5, "iv": 55.99, "open_interest": 21, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 240 put" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 220.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 27.0, "bid": 25.5, "ask": 28.5, "iv": 56.68, "open_interest": 38, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 220 put" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -800.0, "max_profit": 800.0, "max_loss": 1200.0, "breakevens": [ 232.0 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.546, "credit_to_width": 0.4, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit — usually long before expiry", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~90 days to expiry, before gamma starts to matter", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 2, "risk_per_spread": 1200.0, "total_risk": 2400.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "2× risks $2,400 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "short_premium", "note": "You collect a premium for taking on an obligation, held against margin. The long wings cap the loss — without them it is open-ended." } }, { "key": "leaps_bear_put", "name": "LEAPS Bear Put Spread", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "bearish", "thesis": "A year of room for the downside thesis, at a cost that is fixed the day you put it on.", "playbook": "Buy a long-dated put, sell a lower one. The same shape pointed down: a year of room for a thesis, at a defined cost.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 300.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 66.0, "bid": 64.0, "ask": 68.0, "iv": 54.75, "open_interest": 196, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 300 put" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "put", "strike": 250.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 39.925, "bid": 37.85, "ask": 42.0, "iv": 56.18, "open_interest": 80, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 250 put" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 2607.5, "max_profit": 2392.5, "max_loss": 2607.5, "breakevens": [ 273.93 ], "profit_zone": "below", "pop": 0.564, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "take 50–70% of the maximum profit — the last of it takes months to arrive", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit, or sooner if the reason you put it on stops being true", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll or close with ~90 days left; the final quarter is where a long-dated spread loses its remaining time value fastest", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 0, "risk_per_spread": 2607.5, "total_risk": 0.0, "over_budget": true, "note": "One spread already risks $2,608, above the $2,500 budget. Narrow the wings, go further out of the money, or skip it." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, { "key": "leaps_bear_call", "name": "LEAPS Bear Call Spread", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bearish", "thesis": "Paid up front to be right about a direction over a year, with the loss capped by the long wing — but the capital is committed for that whole year.", "playbook": "Sell a long-dated call well above the price, buy a higher one. The credit is yours if the stock stays under the short strike for the year.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 360.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 55.725, "bid": 54.0, "ask": 57.45, "iv": 63.87, "open_interest": 13, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 360 call" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 380.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 51.0, "bid": 49.0, "ask": 53.0, "iv": 64.2, "open_interest": 40, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 380 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -472.5, "max_profit": 472.5, "max_loss": 1527.5, "breakevens": [ 364.73 ], "profit_zone": "below", "pop": 0.737, "credit_to_width": 0.236, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit — usually long before expiry", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~90 days to expiry, before gamma starts to matter", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 1527.5, "total_risk": 1527.5, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $1,528 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "short_premium", "note": "You collect a premium for taking on an obligation, held against margin. The long wings cap the loss — without them it is open-ended." } } ], "warnings": [ "The long-dated chain is thin (ATM spread ~5% of mid, OI 34). You pay that spread on the way in and again on the way out, a year apart. Work the order at mid and expect to wait.", "IV rank 18 is a front-month reading. A 13-month contract is priced off a flatter part of the volatility surface, so 'cheap' or 'rich' here is a weaker signal than it is on the near expiry — this expiry's own ATM IV is 60%.", "About 4 earnings reports fall inside this 371-day expiry. A long-dated spread is priced through all of them; none of them is the trade.", "The short legs can be assigned early — most often a short call the day before an ex-dividend date. Know the dividend calendar before you sell one." ] }, "screen": { "compliant": true, "industry_ok": true, "industry": "Semiconductor Equipment & Materials", "debt_ratio": 0.011044769774877741, "cash_ratio": 0.014950791331422351, "receivables_ratio": null, "reasons": [ "ok" ] } }, { "rank": 12, "ticker": "TXN", "price": 268.7, "score": 67.4, "squeeze_on": false, "squeeze_days": 0, "squeeze_fired": false, "fired_dir": "", "bandwidth_pctile": 0.183, "hv_annual": 30.0, "hv_pctile": 0.125, "em_pct": 5.98, "horizon_days": 10, "down_1sigma": 252.64, "up_1sigma": 284.76, "down_2sigma": 236.58, "up_2sigma": 300.82, "lean": "Neutral", "note": "", "debt_ratio": 0.05726402640352168, "cash_ratio": 0.028530134677616857, "earnings_in_days": 45, "implied_move_pct": 8.23, "vol_verdict": "rich", "iv_annual": 41.29, "iv_rank": 47.7, "premium_score": 58.9, "premium_state": "fair", "liquidity": "poor", "action": "STAND_ASIDE", "strategy": "Stand aside", "options": { "iv_annual": 41.29, "hv_annual": 30.0, "implied_move_pct": 8.23, "hist_move_pct": 5.98, "iv_rank": 47.7, "iv_percentile": 72.3, "vrp": 11.28, "iv_hv_ratio": 1.38, "verdict": "rich", "premium_score": 58.9, "premium_state": "fair", "term_slope": 0.1131, "term_structure": "contango", "skew": 2.38, "skew_label": "balanced", "atm_spread_pct": 44.4, "atm_open_interest": 24, "liquidity": "poor", "expiry": "2026-10-02", "days_to_expiry": 21, "expiries": [ { "date": "2026-09-18", "dte": 7 }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "dte": 14 }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21 }, { "date": "2026-10-09", "dte": 28 }, { "date": "2026-10-16", "dte": 35 }, { "date": "2026-10-23", "dte": 42 }, { "date": "2026-11-20", "dte": 70 }, { "date": "2026-12-18", "dte": 98 }, { "date": "2027-01-15", "dte": 126 }, { "date": "2027-02-19", "dte": 161 }, { "date": "2027-03-19", "dte": 189 }, { "date": "2027-04-16", "dte": 217 } ], "long_expiry": "2027-09-17", "long_dte": 371, "long_iv": 44.62, "long_spread_pct": 10.4, "long_open_interest": 1, "long_liquidity": "poor" }, "recommendation": { "ticker": "TXN", "action": "STAND_ASIDE", "headline": "TXN: stand aside — the options are too illiquid to trade: the at-the-money bid/ask is ~44% of mid. Premium looks fair, but you would give the edge back on the fills.", "detail": "The options are too illiquid to trade: the at-the-money bid/ask is ~44% of mid. Premium looks fair, but you would give the edge back on the fills.", "confidence": 0.0, "premium_state": "fair", "premium_score": 58.9, "bias": "neutral", "bias_strength": "none", "plan": { "key": "stand_aside", "name": "Stand aside", "action": "STAND_ASIDE", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "The options are too illiquid to trade: the at-the-money bid/ask is ~44% of mid. Premium looks fair, but you would give the edge back on the fills.", "playbook": "No edge worth paying for. The best trade is often none.", "vega": "flat", "theta": "flat", "risk": "none", "legs": [], "expiry": null, "dte": null, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": null, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": null, "breakevens": [], "profit_zone": "", "pop": null, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": {}, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 1000.0, "contracts": 0 }, "risk_form": { "tier": "n/a", "note": "No position — nothing to secure." } }, "alternatives": [], "avoid": [ { "name": "Any multi-leg spread here", "reason": "The at-the-money bid/ask is ~44% of mid — slippage on entry and exit would cost more than the edge." } ], "why": [ "IV rank 48/100 (fair premium, blended score 59).", "Options price a 8.2% move over the horizon vs 6.0% realized (1.38× IV/HV).", "Setup score 67/100, no directional edge.", "Term structure in contango (+11.3% front→back)." ], "warnings": [ "Thin options market (ATM spread ~44% of mid, OI 24) — the bid/ask will eat a multi-leg spread. Use limit orders at mid, or skip it." ] }, "long_dated": { "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "target_days": 395, "iv_annual": 44.62, "front_iv_annual": 41.29, "liquidity": "poor", "atm_spread_pct": 10.4, "atm_open_interest": 1, "premium_state": "fair", "bias": "neutral", "bias_strength": "none", "preferred": null, "summary": "5 long-dated spreads price out on the 2027-09-17 expiry, but the scanner has no directional read on this name — and every 13-month spread is a directional bet. Listed for reference, not recommended.", "candidates": [ { "key": "leaps_bull_call", "name": "LEAPS Bull Call Spread", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "A year of room for the upside thesis, at a cost that is fixed the day you put it on.", "playbook": "Buy a call about 13 months out, sell a higher one in the same expiry. A bullish position with a year to be right and a cost you know on day one — the short leg pays for part of the long one and caps the win.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 270.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 48.0, "bid": 45.5, "ask": 50.5, "iv": 47.59, "open_interest": 1, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 270 call" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 310.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 33.5, "bid": 31.0, "ask": 36.0, "iv": 46.99, "open_interest": 1, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 310 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 1450.0, "max_profit": 2550.0, "max_loss": 1450.0, "breakevens": [ 284.5 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.362, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "take 50–70% of the maximum profit — the last of it takes months to arrive", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit, or sooner if the reason you put it on stops being true", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll or close with ~90 days left; the final quarter is where a long-dated spread loses its remaining time value fastest", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 1450.0, "total_risk": 1450.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $1,450 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, { "key": "poor_mans_covered_call", "name": "Poor Man's Covered Call", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "Own the year cheaply through a deep in-the-money call, and rent the near month out against it every cycle.", "playbook": "Buy a deep in-the-money call 13 months out as a cheaper stand-in for 100 shares, then sell a near-dated call against it and roll that short leg each month. Covered-call income on a fraction of the capital — and the long call, not stock, is what secures it.", "vega": "long", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 220.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 73.975, "bid": 71.5, "ask": 76.45, "iv": 49.68, "open_interest": 4, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 220 call" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 295.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 1.84, "bid": 1.02, "ask": 2.66, "iv": 40.76, "open_interest": 42, "label": "Sell 1× 2026-10-02 295 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": 21, "net": 7213.5, "max_profit": 286.5, "max_loss": 7213.5, "breakevens": [ 292.13 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": null, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "roll the short call out each month for a fresh credit; take the whole position off at 50–70% of the maximum", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut if the long call loses half its value — the thesis is gone, not just early", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll the long leg with ~90 days left. Never let the short call go to assignment while you still want the long one.", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 0, "risk_per_spread": 7213.5, "total_risk": 0.0, "over_budget": true, "note": "One spread already risks $7,214, above the $2,500 budget. Narrow the wings, go further out of the money, or skip it." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "option_covered", "note": "The short call is secured by the long call, not by shares and not by margin: assignment is covered by exercising or selling the long leg. That is why the whole position can only lose the debit — and why the long leg must never be closed first." } }, { "key": "leaps_bull_put", "name": "LEAPS Bull Put Spread", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "Paid up front to be right about a direction over a year, with the loss capped by the long wing — but the capital is committed for that whole year.", "playbook": "Sell a long-dated put well below the price, buy a lower one for protection. You collect the credit up front and keep it if the stock holds up — but the capital is committed for a year and the decay arrives mostly at the end.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "sell", "right": "put", "strike": 210.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 16.85, "bid": 15.0, "ask": 18.7, "iv": 43.77, "open_interest": 25, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 210 put" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 185.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 10.375, "bid": 8.25, "ask": 12.5, "iv": 46.53, "open_interest": 177, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 185 put" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -647.5, "max_profit": 647.5, "max_loss": 1852.5, "breakevens": [ 203.53 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.653, "credit_to_width": 0.259, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit — usually long before expiry", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~90 days to expiry, before gamma starts to matter", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 1852.5, "total_risk": 1852.5, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $1,852 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "short_premium", "note": "You collect a premium for taking on an obligation, held against margin. The long wings cap the loss — without them it is open-ended." } }, { "key": "leaps_bear_put", "name": "LEAPS Bear Put Spread", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "bearish", "thesis": "A year of room for the downside thesis, at a cost that is fixed the day you put it on.", "playbook": "Buy a long-dated put, sell a lower one. The same shape pointed down: a year of room for a thesis, at a defined cost.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 270.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 43.0, "bid": 40.5, "ask": 45.5, "iv": 41.66, "open_interest": 6, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 270 put" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "put", "strike": 230.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 24.2, "bid": 22.0, "ask": 26.4, "iv": 43.27, "open_interest": 30, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 230 put" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 1880.0, "max_profit": 2120.0, "max_loss": 1880.0, "breakevens": [ 251.2 ], "profit_zone": "below", "pop": 0.53, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "take 50–70% of the maximum profit — the last of it takes months to arrive", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit, or sooner if the reason you put it on stops being true", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll or close with ~90 days left; the final quarter is where a long-dated spread loses its remaining time value fastest", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 1880.0, "total_risk": 1880.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $1,880 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, { "key": "leaps_bear_call", "name": "LEAPS Bear Call Spread", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bearish", "thesis": "Paid up front to be right about a direction over a year, with the loss capped by the long wing — but the capital is committed for that whole year.", "playbook": "Sell a long-dated call well above the price, buy a higher one. The credit is yours if the stock stays under the short strike for the year.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 320.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 30.5, "bid": 28.0, "ask": 33.0, "iv": 46.83, "open_interest": 1, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 320 call" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 340.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 25.5, "bid": 23.0, "ask": 28.0, "iv": 46.86, "open_interest": 1, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 340 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -500.0, "max_profit": 500.0, "max_loss": 1500.0, "breakevens": [ 325.0 ], "profit_zone": "below", "pop": 0.741, "credit_to_width": 0.25, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit — usually long before expiry", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~90 days to expiry, before gamma starts to matter", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 1500.0, "total_risk": 1500.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $1,500 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "short_premium", "note": "You collect a premium for taking on an obligation, held against margin. The long wings cap the loss — without them it is open-ended." } } ], "warnings": [ "The long-dated chain is thin (ATM spread ~10% of mid, OI 1). You pay that spread on the way in and again on the way out, a year apart. Work the order at mid and expect to wait.", "IV rank 48 is a front-month reading. A 13-month contract is priced off a flatter part of the volatility surface, so 'cheap' or 'rich' here is a weaker signal than it is on the near expiry — this expiry's own ATM IV is 45%.", "About 4 earnings reports fall inside this 371-day expiry. A long-dated spread is priced through all of them; none of them is the trade.", "The Poor Man's Covered Call's max profit below is the conservative case — assigned on the very first short call. Rolling that short leg out each month is where the structure actually earns, and no figure here counts those rolls.", "The short legs can be assigned early — most often a short call the day before an ex-dividend date. Know the dividend calendar before you sell one." ] }, "screen": { "compliant": true, "industry_ok": true, "industry": "Semiconductors", "debt_ratio": 0.05726402640352168, "cash_ratio": 0.028530134677616857, "receivables_ratio": null, "reasons": [ "ok" ] } }, { "rank": 13, "ticker": "KLAC", "price": 180.64, "score": 66.7, "squeeze_on": false, "squeeze_days": 0, "squeeze_fired": false, "fired_dir": "", "bandwidth_pctile": 0.308, "hv_annual": 44.1, "hv_pctile": 0.067, "em_pct": 8.78, "horizon_days": 10, "down_1sigma": 164.77, "up_1sigma": 196.51, "down_2sigma": 148.91, "up_2sigma": 212.37, "lean": "Bearish", "note": "", "debt_ratio": 0.02606496520108136, "cash_ratio": 0.0207716295843116, "earnings_in_days": 46, "implied_move_pct": 10.18, "vol_verdict": "rich", "iv_annual": 51.11, "iv_rank": 21.5, "premium_score": 34.8, "premium_state": "cheap", "liquidity": "poor", "action": "STAND_ASIDE", "strategy": "Stand aside", "options": { "iv_annual": 51.11, "hv_annual": 44.1, "implied_move_pct": 10.18, "hist_move_pct": 8.78, "iv_rank": 21.5, "iv_percentile": 58.0, "vrp": 7.02, "iv_hv_ratio": 1.16, "verdict": "rich", "premium_score": 34.8, "premium_state": "cheap", "term_slope": 0.1534, "term_structure": "contango", "skew": -0.17, "skew_label": "balanced", "atm_spread_pct": 21.1, "atm_open_interest": 324, "liquidity": "poor", "expiry": "2026-10-02", "days_to_expiry": 21, "expiries": [ { "date": "2026-09-18", "dte": 7 }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "dte": 14 }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21 }, { "date": "2026-10-09", "dte": 28 }, { "date": "2026-10-16", "dte": 35 }, { "date": "2026-10-23", "dte": 42 }, { "date": "2026-11-20", "dte": 70 }, { "date": "2026-12-18", "dte": 98 }, { "date": "2027-01-15", "dte": 126 }, { "date": "2027-03-19", "dte": 189 }, { "date": "2027-06-17", "dte": 279 }, { "date": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371 } ], "long_expiry": "2027-09-17", "long_dte": 371, "long_iv": 58.09, "long_spread_pct": 8.1, "long_open_interest": 1, "long_liquidity": "poor" }, "recommendation": { "ticker": "KLAC", "action": "STAND_ASIDE", "headline": "KLAC: stand aside — the options are too illiquid to trade: the at-the-money bid/ask is ~21% of mid. Premium looks cheap, but you would give the edge back on the fills.", "detail": "The options are too illiquid to trade: the at-the-money bid/ask is ~21% of mid. Premium looks cheap, but you would give the edge back on the fills.", "confidence": 0.0, "premium_state": "cheap", "premium_score": 34.8, "bias": "bearish", "bias_strength": "weak", "plan": { "key": "stand_aside", "name": "Stand aside", "action": "STAND_ASIDE", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "The options are too illiquid to trade: the at-the-money bid/ask is ~21% of mid. Premium looks cheap, but you would give the edge back on the fills.", "playbook": "No edge worth paying for. The best trade is often none.", "vega": "flat", "theta": "flat", "risk": "none", "legs": [], "expiry": null, "dte": null, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": null, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": null, "breakevens": [], "profit_zone": "", "pop": null, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": {}, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 1000.0, "contracts": 0 }, "risk_form": { "tier": "n/a", "note": "No position — nothing to secure." } }, "alternatives": [], "avoid": [ { "name": "Any multi-leg spread here", "reason": "The at-the-money bid/ask is ~21% of mid — slippage on entry and exit would cost more than the edge." } ], "why": [ "IV rank 22/100 (cheap premium, blended score 35).", "Options price a 10.2% move over the horizon vs 8.8% realized (1.16× IV/HV).", "Setup score 67/100, direction bearish (weak).", "Term structure in contango (+15.3% front→back)." ], "warnings": [ "Thin options market (ATM spread ~21% of mid, OI 324) — the bid/ask will eat a multi-leg spread. Use limit orders at mid, or skip it." ] }, "long_dated": { "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "target_days": 395, "iv_annual": 58.09, "front_iv_annual": 51.11, "liquidity": "poor", "atm_spread_pct": 8.1, "atm_open_interest": 1, "premium_state": "cheap", "bias": "bearish", "bias_strength": "weak", "preferred": "leaps_bear_put", "summary": "The bearish lean plus cheap premium points at the LEAPS Bear Put Spread on the 2027-09-17 expiry (371 days out).", "candidates": [ { "key": "leaps_bull_call", "name": "LEAPS Bull Call Spread", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "A year of room for the upside thesis, at a cost that is fixed the day you put it on.", "playbook": "Buy a call about 13 months out, sell a higher one in the same expiry. A bullish position with a year to be right and a cost you know on day one — the short leg pays for part of the long one and caps the win.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 180.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 45.65, "bid": 43.8, "ask": 47.5, "iv": 63.48, "open_interest": 1, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 180 call" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 210.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 33.85, "bid": 31.1, "ask": 36.6, "iv": 60.9, "open_interest": 1, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 210 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 1180.0, "max_profit": 1820.0, "max_loss": 1180.0, "breakevens": [ 191.8 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.346, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "take 50–70% of the maximum profit — the last of it takes months to arrive", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit, or sooner if the reason you put it on stops being true", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll or close with ~90 days left; the final quarter is where a long-dated spread loses its remaining time value fastest", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 2, "risk_per_spread": 1180.0, "total_risk": 2360.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "2× risks $2,360 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, { "key": "leaps_bull_put", "name": "LEAPS Bull Put Spread", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "Paid up front to be right about a direction over a year, with the loss capped by the long wing — but the capital is committed for that whole year.", "playbook": "Sell a long-dated put well below the price, buy a lower one for protection. You collect the credit up front and keep it if the stock holds up — but the capital is committed for a year and the decay arrives mostly at the end.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "sell", "right": "put", "strike": 145.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 20.4, "bid": 19.8, "ask": 21.0, "iv": 54.91, "open_interest": 188, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 145 put" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 135.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 17.35, "bid": 15.3, "ask": 19.4, "iv": 57.22, "open_interest": 1, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 135 put" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -305.0, "max_profit": 305.0, "max_loss": 695.0, "breakevens": [ 141.95 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.547, "credit_to_width": 0.305, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit — usually long before expiry", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~90 days to expiry, before gamma starts to matter", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 3, "risk_per_spread": 695.0, "total_risk": 2085.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "3× risks $2,085 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "short_premium", "note": "You collect a premium for taking on an obligation, held against margin. The long wings cap the loss — without them it is open-ended." } }, { "key": "leaps_bear_put", "name": "LEAPS Bear Put Spread", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "bearish", "thesis": "A year of room for the downside thesis, at a cost that is fixed the day you put it on.", "playbook": "Buy a long-dated put, sell a lower one. The same shape pointed down: a year of room for a thesis, at a defined cost.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 180.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 37.5, "bid": 36.8, "ask": 38.2, "iv": 52.71, "open_interest": 72, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 180 put" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "put", "strike": 155.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 23.9, "bid": 19.8, "ask": 28.0, "iv": 52.88, "open_interest": 64, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 155 put" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 1360.0, "max_profit": 1140.0, "max_loss": 1360.0, "breakevens": [ 166.4 ], "profit_zone": "below", "pop": 0.561, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "take 50–70% of the maximum profit — the last of it takes months to arrive", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit, or sooner if the reason you put it on stops being true", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll or close with ~90 days left; the final quarter is where a long-dated spread loses its remaining time value fastest", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 1360.0, "total_risk": 1360.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $1,360 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, { "key": "leaps_bear_call", "name": "LEAPS Bear Call Spread", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bearish", "thesis": "Paid up front to be right about a direction over a year, with the loss capped by the long wing — but the capital is committed for that whole year.", "playbook": "Sell a long-dated call well above the price, buy a higher one. The credit is yours if the stock stays under the short strike for the year.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 210.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 33.85, "bid": 31.1, "ask": 36.6, "iv": 60.9, "open_interest": 1, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 210 call" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 230.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 28.4, "bid": 25.8, "ask": 31.0, "iv": 60.7, "open_interest": 4, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 230 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -545.0, "max_profit": 545.0, "max_loss": 1455.0, "breakevens": [ 215.45 ], "profit_zone": "below", "pop": 0.724, "credit_to_width": 0.273, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit — usually long before expiry", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~90 days to expiry, before gamma starts to matter", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 1455.0, "total_risk": 1455.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $1,455 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "short_premium", "note": "You collect a premium for taking on an obligation, held against margin. The long wings cap the loss — without them it is open-ended." } } ], "warnings": [ "The long-dated chain is thin (ATM spread ~8% of mid, OI 1). You pay that spread on the way in and again on the way out, a year apart. Work the order at mid and expect to wait.", "IV rank 22 is a front-month reading. A 13-month contract is priced off a flatter part of the volatility surface, so 'cheap' or 'rich' here is a weaker signal than it is on the near expiry — this expiry's own ATM IV is 58%.", "About 4 earnings reports fall inside this 371-day expiry. A long-dated spread is priced through all of them; none of them is the trade.", "The short legs can be assigned early — most often a short call the day before an ex-dividend date. Know the dividend calendar before you sell one." ] }, "screen": { "compliant": true, "industry_ok": true, "industry": "Semiconductor Equipment & Materials", "debt_ratio": 0.02606496520108136, "cash_ratio": 0.0207716295843116, "receivables_ratio": null, "reasons": [ "ok" ] } }, { "rank": 14, "ticker": "INTC", "price": 102.94, "score": 65.3, "squeeze_on": false, "squeeze_days": 0, "squeeze_fired": false, "fired_dir": "", "bandwidth_pctile": 0.358, "hv_annual": 56.4, "hv_pctile": 0.067, "em_pct": 11.24, "horizon_days": 10, "down_1sigma": 91.37, "up_1sigma": 114.51, "down_2sigma": 79.8, "up_2sigma": 126.08, "lean": "Bullish", "note": "", "debt_ratio": 0.09287300591688967, "cash_ratio": 0.05462999085702435, "earnings_in_days": 40, "implied_move_pct": 11.37, "vol_verdict": "fair", "iv_annual": 57.06, "iv_rank": 27.0, "premium_score": 29.2, "premium_state": "cheap", "liquidity": "fair", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "strategy": "Long Straddle", "options": { "iv_annual": 57.06, "hv_annual": 56.4, "implied_move_pct": 11.37, "hist_move_pct": 11.24, "iv_rank": 27.0, "iv_percentile": 29.0, "vrp": 0.63, "iv_hv_ratio": 1.01, "verdict": "fair", "premium_score": 29.2, "premium_state": "cheap", "term_slope": 0.1484, "term_structure": "contango", "skew": -2.18, "skew_label": "balanced", "atm_spread_pct": 2.6, "atm_open_interest": 358, "liquidity": "fair", "expiry": "2026-10-02", "days_to_expiry": 21, "expiries": [ { "date": "2026-09-14", "dte": 3 }, { "date": "2026-09-16", "dte": 5 }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "dte": 7 }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "dte": 14 }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21 }, { "date": "2026-10-09", "dte": 28 }, { "date": "2026-10-16", "dte": 35 }, { "date": "2026-10-23", "dte": 42 }, { "date": "2026-11-20", "dte": 70 }, { "date": "2026-12-18", "dte": 98 }, { "date": "2027-01-15", "dte": 126 }, { "date": "2027-02-19", "dte": 161 } ], "long_expiry": "2027-09-17", "long_dte": 371, "long_iv": 64.22, "long_spread_pct": 2.9, "long_open_interest": 139, "long_liquidity": "fair" }, "recommendation": { "ticker": "INTC", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "headline": "INTC: BUY premium — IV rank 27, cheap → Long Straddle", "detail": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 103 call; Buy 1× 2026-10-02 103 put — net debit $1,150.00 per spread", "confidence": 0.61, "premium_state": "cheap", "premium_score": 29.2, "bias": "bullish", "bias_strength": "weak", "plan": { "key": "long_straddle", "name": "Long Straddle", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "Options are cheap and the chart is coiled — pay for the move, either direction.", "playbook": "Buy the at-the-money call and the at-the-money put. You win if the move is big enough, either way; you lose if it sits still. The trade for cheap options in front of a coiled chart.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 103.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 5.825, "bid": 5.75, "ask": 5.9, "iv": 58.11, "open_interest": 358, "label": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 103 call" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 103.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 5.675, "bid": 5.6, "ask": 5.75, "iv": 56.02, "open_interest": 37, "label": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 103 put" } ], "expiry": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 1150.0, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": 1150.0, "breakevens": [ 91.5, 114.5 ], "profit_zone": "outside", "pop": 0.413, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "close at +50% to +100% of the debit", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "be out with ~7 days to expiry — theta accelerates into the last week", "close_by_dte": 7 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 1000.0, "contracts": 0, "risk_per_spread": 1150.0, "total_risk": 0.0, "over_budget": true, "note": "One spread already risks $1,150, above the $1,000 budget. Narrow the wings, go further out of the money, or skip it." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, "alternatives": [ { "key": "long_strangle", "name": "Long Strangle", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "Cheap options plus a coiled chart — the budget version of the both-ways bet.", "playbook": "Buy an out-of-the-money call and an out-of-the-money put. Cheaper than a straddle and needs a bigger move to pay — the budget version of the same both-ways bet.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 114.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 2.26, "bid": 2.21, "ask": 2.31, "iv": 59.47, "open_interest": 1251, "label": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 114 call" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 92.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 1.625, "bid": 1.58, "ask": 1.67, "iv": 56.98, "open_interest": 405, "label": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 92 put" } ], "expiry": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 388.5, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": 388.5, "breakevens": [ 88.11, 117.89 ], "profit_zone": "outside", "pop": 0.287, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "close at +50% to +100% of the debit", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "be out with ~7 days to expiry — theta accelerates into the last week", "close_by_dte": 7 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 1000.0, "contracts": 2, "risk_per_spread": 388.5, "total_risk": 777.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "2× risks $777 of a $1,000 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, { "key": "bull_call_spread", "name": "Bull Call Spread", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "Options are reasonably priced and the break is up — pay a capped premium for a capped move.", "playbook": "Buy a call, sell a higher one. A capped, cheaper bullish bet — the short leg pays for part of the long one.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 103.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 5.825, "bid": 5.75, "ask": 5.9, "iv": 58.11, "open_interest": 358, "label": "Buy 1× 2026-10-02 103 call" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 116.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 1.89, "bid": 1.84, "ask": 1.94, "iv": 59.94, "open_interest": 335, "label": "Sell 1× 2026-10-02 116 call" } ], "expiry": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 393.5, "max_profit": 906.5, "max_loss": 393.5, "breakevens": [ 106.94 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.364, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "close at +50% to +100% of the debit", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "be out with ~7 days to expiry — theta accelerates into the last week", "close_by_dte": 7 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 1000.0, "contracts": 2, "risk_per_spread": 393.5, "total_risk": 787.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "2× risks $787 of a $1,000 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } } ], "avoid": [ { "name": "Selling premium (condors, credit spreads)", "reason": "IV rank 27 — you'd collect too little for the risk." } ], "why": [ "IV rank 27/100 (cheap premium, blended score 29).", "Options price a 11.4% move over the horizon vs 11.2% realized (1.01× IV/HV).", "Setup score 65/100, direction bullish (weak).", "Term structure in contango (+14.8% front→back)." ], "warnings": [] }, "long_dated": { "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "target_days": 395, "iv_annual": 64.22, "front_iv_annual": 57.06, "liquidity": "fair", "atm_spread_pct": 2.9, "atm_open_interest": 139, "premium_state": "cheap", "bias": "bullish", "bias_strength": "weak", "preferred": "leaps_bull_call", "summary": "The bullish lean plus cheap premium points at the LEAPS Bull Call Spread on the 2027-09-17 expiry (371 days out).", "candidates": [ { "key": "leaps_bull_call", "name": "LEAPS Bull Call Spread", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "A year of room for the upside thesis, at a cost that is fixed the day you put it on.", "playbook": "Buy a call about 13 months out, sell a higher one in the same expiry. A bullish position with a year to be right and a cost you know on day one — the short leg pays for part of the long one and caps the win.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 105.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 27.65, "bid": 27.25, "ask": 28.05, "iv": 69.88, "open_interest": 139, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 105 call" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 120.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 22.825, "bid": 22.45, "ask": 23.2, "iv": 69.7, "open_interest": 317, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 120 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 482.5, "max_profit": 1017.5, "max_loss": 482.5, "breakevens": [ 109.83 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.336, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "take 50–70% of the maximum profit — the last of it takes months to arrive", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit, or sooner if the reason you put it on stops being true", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll or close with ~90 days left; the final quarter is where a long-dated spread loses its remaining time value fastest", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 5, "risk_per_spread": 482.5, "total_risk": 2412.5, "over_budget": false, "note": "5× risks $2,412 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, { "key": "leaps_bull_put", "name": "LEAPS Bull Put Spread", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "Paid up front to be right about a direction over a year, with the loss capped by the long wing — but the capital is committed for that whole year.", "playbook": "Sell a long-dated put well below the price, buy a lower one for protection. You collect the credit up front and keep it if the stock holds up — but the capital is committed for a year and the decay arrives mostly at the end.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "sell", "right": "put", "strike": 82.5, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 13.1, "bid": 12.75, "ask": 13.45, "iv": 59.55, "open_interest": 43, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 82.5 put" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 70.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 7.9, "bid": 7.7, "ask": 8.1, "iv": 59.77, "open_interest": 1137, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 70 put" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -520.0, "max_profit": 520.0, "max_loss": 730.0, "breakevens": [ 77.3 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.547, "credit_to_width": 0.416, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit — usually long before expiry", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~90 days to expiry, before gamma starts to matter", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 3, "risk_per_spread": 730.0, "total_risk": 2190.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "3× risks $2,190 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "short_premium", "note": "You collect a premium for taking on an obligation, held against margin. The long wings cap the loss — without them it is open-ended." } }, { "key": "leaps_bear_put", "name": "LEAPS Bear Put Spread", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "bearish", "thesis": "A year of room for the downside thesis, at a cost that is fixed the day you put it on.", "playbook": "Buy a long-dated put, sell a lower one. The same shape pointed down: a year of room for a thesis, at a defined cost.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 105.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 25.2, "bid": 24.75, "ask": 25.65, "iv": 58.55, "open_interest": 1139, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 105 put" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "put", "strike": 87.5, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 15.475, "bid": 15.1, "ask": 15.85, "iv": 59.3, "open_interest": 24, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 87.5 put" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 972.5, "max_profit": 777.5, "max_loss": 972.5, "breakevens": [ 95.28 ], "profit_zone": "below", "pop": 0.581, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "take 50–70% of the maximum profit — the last of it takes months to arrive", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit, or sooner if the reason you put it on stops being true", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll or close with ~90 days left; the final quarter is where a long-dated spread loses its remaining time value fastest", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 2, "risk_per_spread": 972.5, "total_risk": 1945.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "2× risks $1,945 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, { "key": "leaps_bear_call", "name": "LEAPS Bear Call Spread", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bearish", "thesis": "Paid up front to be right about a direction over a year, with the loss capped by the long wing — but the capital is committed for that whole year.", "playbook": "Sell a long-dated call well above the price, buy a higher one. The credit is yours if the stock stays under the short strike for the year.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 125.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 21.95, "bid": 21.1, "ask": 22.8, "iv": 70.9, "open_interest": 88, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 125 call" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 135.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 19.025, "bid": 18.65, "ask": 19.4, "iv": 69.81, "open_interest": 109, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 135 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -292.5, "max_profit": 292.5, "max_loss": 707.5, "breakevens": [ 127.92 ], "profit_zone": "below", "pop": 0.745, "credit_to_width": 0.292, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit — usually long before expiry", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~90 days to expiry, before gamma starts to matter", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 3, "risk_per_spread": 707.5, "total_risk": 2122.5, "over_budget": false, "note": "3× risks $2,122 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "short_premium", "note": "You collect a premium for taking on an obligation, held against margin. The long wings cap the loss — without them it is open-ended." } } ], "warnings": [ "IV rank 27 is a front-month reading. A 13-month contract is priced off a flatter part of the volatility surface, so 'cheap' or 'rich' here is a weaker signal than it is on the near expiry — this expiry's own ATM IV is 64%.", "About 4 earnings reports fall inside this 371-day expiry. A long-dated spread is priced through all of them; none of them is the trade.", "The short legs can be assigned early — most often a short call the day before an ex-dividend date. Know the dividend calendar before you sell one." ] }, "screen": { "compliant": true, "industry_ok": true, "industry": "Semiconductors", "debt_ratio": 0.09287300591688967, "cash_ratio": 0.05462999085702435, "receivables_ratio": null, "reasons": [ "ok" ] } }, { "rank": 15, "ticker": "AMAT", "price": 456.49, "score": 64.2, "squeeze_on": false, "squeeze_days": 0, "squeeze_fired": false, "fired_dir": "", "bandwidth_pctile": 0.408, "hv_annual": 44.4, "hv_pctile": 0.058, "em_pct": 8.84, "horizon_days": 10, "down_1sigma": 416.13, "up_1sigma": 496.85, "down_2sigma": 375.77, "up_2sigma": 537.21, "lean": "Bearish", "note": "", "debt_ratio": 0.020277733481397314, "cash_ratio": 0.025486567598753968, "earnings_in_days": 61, "implied_move_pct": 10.46, "vol_verdict": "rich", "iv_annual": 52.49, "iv_rank": 31.3, "premium_score": 42.4, "premium_state": "fair", "liquidity": "poor", "action": "STAND_ASIDE", "strategy": "Stand aside", "options": { "iv_annual": 52.49, "hv_annual": 44.4, "implied_move_pct": 10.46, "hist_move_pct": 8.84, "iv_rank": 31.3, "iv_percentile": 55.4, "vrp": 8.11, "iv_hv_ratio": 1.18, "verdict": "rich", "premium_score": 42.4, "premium_state": "fair", "term_slope": 0.0638, "term_structure": "contango", "skew": -3.07, "skew_label": "call_skew", "atm_spread_pct": 15.0, "atm_open_interest": 60, "liquidity": "poor", "expiry": "2026-10-02", "days_to_expiry": 21, "expiries": [ { "date": "2026-09-18", "dte": 7 }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "dte": 14 }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "dte": 21 }, { "date": "2026-10-09", "dte": 28 }, { "date": "2026-10-16", "dte": 35 }, { "date": "2026-10-23", "dte": 42 }, { "date": "2026-11-20", "dte": 70 }, { "date": "2026-12-18", "dte": 98 }, { "date": "2027-01-15", "dte": 126 }, { "date": "2027-02-19", "dte": 161 }, { "date": "2027-03-19", "dte": 189 }, { "date": "2027-04-16", "dte": 217 } ], "long_expiry": "2027-09-17", "long_dte": 371, "long_iv": 55.59, "long_spread_pct": 8.3, "long_open_interest": 55, "long_liquidity": "poor" }, "recommendation": { "ticker": "AMAT", "action": "STAND_ASIDE", "headline": "AMAT: stand aside — the options are too illiquid to trade: the at-the-money bid/ask is ~15% of mid. Premium looks fair, but you would give the edge back on the fills.", "detail": "The options are too illiquid to trade: the at-the-money bid/ask is ~15% of mid. Premium looks fair, but you would give the edge back on the fills.", "confidence": 0.0, "premium_state": "fair", "premium_score": 42.4, "bias": "bearish", "bias_strength": "weak", "plan": { "key": "stand_aside", "name": "Stand aside", "action": "STAND_ASIDE", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "The options are too illiquid to trade: the at-the-money bid/ask is ~15% of mid. Premium looks fair, but you would give the edge back on the fills.", "playbook": "No edge worth paying for. The best trade is often none.", "vega": "flat", "theta": "flat", "risk": "none", "legs": [], "expiry": null, "dte": null, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": null, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": null, "breakevens": [], "profit_zone": "", "pop": null, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": {}, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 1000.0, "contracts": 0 }, "risk_form": { "tier": "n/a", "note": "No position — nothing to secure." } }, "alternatives": [], "avoid": [ { "name": "Any multi-leg spread here", "reason": "The at-the-money bid/ask is ~15% of mid — slippage on entry and exit would cost more than the edge." } ], "why": [ "IV rank 31/100 (fair premium, blended score 42).", "Options price a 10.5% move over the horizon vs 8.8% realized (1.18× IV/HV).", "Setup score 64/100, direction bearish (weak).", "Term structure in contango (+6.4% front→back).", "Calls bid over puts by 3.1 vol points — upside is the expensive side." ], "warnings": [ "Thin options market (ATM spread ~15% of mid, OI 60) — the bid/ask will eat a multi-leg spread. Use limit orders at mid, or skip it." ] }, "long_dated": { "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "target_days": 395, "iv_annual": 55.59, "front_iv_annual": 52.49, "liquidity": "poor", "atm_spread_pct": 8.3, "atm_open_interest": 55, "premium_state": "fair", "bias": "bearish", "bias_strength": "weak", "preferred": "leaps_bear_put", "summary": "The bearish lean plus fair premium points at the LEAPS Bear Put Spread on the 2027-09-17 expiry (371 days out).", "candidates": [ { "key": "leaps_bull_call", "name": "LEAPS Bull Call Spread", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "A year of room for the upside thesis, at a cost that is fixed the day you put it on.", "playbook": "Buy a call about 13 months out, sell a higher one in the same expiry. A bullish position with a year to be right and a cost you know on day one — the short leg pays for part of the long one and caps the win.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 460.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 108.5, "bid": 104.0, "ask": 113.0, "iv": 60.66, "open_interest": 55, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 460 call" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 520.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 87.5, "bid": 83.0, "ask": 92.0, "iv": 60.24, "open_interest": 12, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 520 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 2100.0, "max_profit": 3900.0, "max_loss": 2100.0, "breakevens": [ 481.0 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.354, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "take 50–70% of the maximum profit — the last of it takes months to arrive", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit, or sooner if the reason you put it on stops being true", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll or close with ~90 days left; the final quarter is where a long-dated spread loses its remaining time value fastest", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 2100.0, "total_risk": 2100.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $2,100 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, { "key": "poor_mans_covered_call", "name": "Poor Man's Covered Call", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "Own the year cheaply through a deep in-the-money call, and rent the near month out against it every cycle.", "playbook": "Buy a deep in-the-money call 13 months out as a cheaper stand-in for 100 shares, then sell a near-dated call against it and roll that short leg each month. Covered-call income on a fraction of the capital — and the long call, not stock, is what secures it.", "vega": "long", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 360.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 156.5, "bid": 152.0, "ask": 161.0, "iv": 62.74, "open_interest": 1, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 360 call" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 515.0, "expiry": "2026-10-02", "qty": 1, "mid": 5.05, "bid": 3.75, "ask": 6.35, "iv": 54.05, "open_interest": 39, "label": "Sell 1× 2026-10-02 515 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": 21, "net": 15145.0, "max_profit": 355.0, "max_loss": 15145.0, "breakevens": [ 511.45 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": null, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "roll the short call out each month for a fresh credit; take the whole position off at 50–70% of the maximum", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut if the long call loses half its value — the thesis is gone, not just early", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll the long leg with ~90 days left. Never let the short call go to assignment while you still want the long one.", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 0, "risk_per_spread": 15145.0, "total_risk": 0.0, "over_budget": true, "note": "One spread already risks $15,145, above the $2,500 budget. Narrow the wings, go further out of the money, or skip it." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "option_covered", "note": "The short call is secured by the long call, not by shares and not by margin: assignment is covered by exercising or selling the long leg. That is why the whole position can only lose the debit — and why the long leg must never be closed first." } }, { "key": "leaps_bull_put", "name": "LEAPS Bull Put Spread", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bullish", "thesis": "Paid up front to be right about a direction over a year, with the loss capped by the long wing — but the capital is committed for that whole year.", "playbook": "Sell a long-dated put well below the price, buy a lower one for protection. You collect the credit up front and keep it if the stock holds up — but the capital is committed for a year and the decay arrives mostly at the end.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "sell", "right": "put", "strike": 370.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 49.5, "bid": 45.0, "ask": 54.0, "iv": 52.42, "open_interest": 161, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 370 put" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 340.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 37.5, "bid": 33.0, "ask": 42.0, "iv": 52.8, "open_interest": 361, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 340 put" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -1200.0, "max_profit": 1200.0, "max_loss": 1800.0, "breakevens": [ 358.0 ], "profit_zone": "above", "pop": 0.561, "credit_to_width": 0.4, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit — usually long before expiry", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~90 days to expiry, before gamma starts to matter", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 1, "risk_per_spread": 1800.0, "total_risk": 1800.0, "over_budget": false, "note": "1× risks $1,800 of a $2,500 budget." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "short_premium", "note": "You collect a premium for taking on an obligation, held against margin. The long wings cap the loss — without them it is open-ended." } }, { "key": "leaps_bear_put", "name": "LEAPS Bear Put Spread", "action": "BUY_PREMIUM", "bias": "bearish", "thesis": "A year of room for the downside thesis, at a cost that is fixed the day you put it on.", "playbook": "Buy a long-dated put, sell a lower one. The same shape pointed down: a year of room for a thesis, at a defined cost.", "vega": "long", "theta": "negative", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "buy", "right": "put", "strike": 460.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 94.0, "bid": 89.0, "ask": 99.0, "iv": 50.53, "open_interest": 56, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 460 put" }, { "action": "sell", "right": "put", "strike": 390.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 58.425, "bid": 54.85, "ask": 62.0, "iv": 52.16, "open_interest": 396, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 390 put" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": 3557.5, "max_profit": 3442.5, "max_loss": 3557.5, "breakevens": [ 424.43 ], "profit_zone": "below", "pop": 0.56, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": { "profit_target": "take 50–70% of the maximum profit — the last of it takes months to arrive", "profit_target_pct": 60, "stop": "cut at −50% of the debit, or sooner if the reason you put it on stops being true", "stop_loss_pct": 50, "time_stop": "roll or close with ~90 days left; the final quarter is where a long-dated spread loses its remaining time value fastest", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 0, "risk_per_spread": 3557.5, "total_risk": 0.0, "over_budget": true, "note": "One spread already risks $3,558, above the $2,500 budget. Narrow the wings, go further out of the money, or skip it." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "defined_debit", "note": "You pay a known premium up front and can never lose more than it. The debit is the whole risk; nothing can be called on later." } }, { "key": "leaps_bear_call", "name": "LEAPS Bear Call Spread", "action": "SELL_PREMIUM", "bias": "bearish", "thesis": "Paid up front to be right about a direction over a year, with the loss capped by the long wing — but the capital is committed for that whole year.", "playbook": "Sell a long-dated call well above the price, buy a higher one. The credit is yours if the stock stays under the short strike for the year.", "vega": "short", "theta": "positive", "risk": "defined", "legs": [ { "action": "sell", "right": "call", "strike": 540.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 81.5, "bid": 77.0, "ask": 86.0, "iv": 60.15, "open_interest": 20, "label": "Sell 1× 2027-09-17 540 call" }, { "action": "buy", "right": "call", "strike": 580.0, "expiry": "2027-09-17", "qty": 1, "mid": 71.0, "bid": 66.0, "ask": 76.0, "iv": 60.12, "open_interest": 5, "label": "Buy 1× 2027-09-17 580 call" } ], "expiry": "2027-09-17", "dte": 371, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": -1050.0, "max_profit": 1050.0, "max_loss": 2950.0, "breakevens": [ 550.5 ], "profit_zone": "below", "pop": 0.731, "credit_to_width": 0.263, "manage": { "profit_target": "buy it back at 50% of the credit — usually long before expiry", "profit_target_pct": 50, "stop": "close if the loss reaches 2× the credit received", "stop_loss_multiple": 2.0, "time_stop": "close or roll at ~90 days to expiry, before gamma starts to matter", "close_by_dte": 90 }, "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2500.0, "contracts": 0, "risk_per_spread": 2950.0, "total_risk": 0.0, "over_budget": true, "note": "One spread already risks $2,950, above the $2,500 budget. Narrow the wings, go further out of the money, or skip it." }, "risk_form": { "tier": "short_premium", "note": "You collect a premium for taking on an obligation, held against margin. The long wings cap the loss — without them it is open-ended." } } ], "warnings": [ "The long-dated chain is thin (ATM spread ~8% of mid, OI 55). You pay that spread on the way in and again on the way out, a year apart. Work the order at mid and expect to wait.", "IV rank 31 is a front-month reading. A 13-month contract is priced off a flatter part of the volatility surface, so 'cheap' or 'rich' here is a weaker signal than it is on the near expiry — this expiry's own ATM IV is 56%.", "About 4 earnings reports fall inside this 371-day expiry. A long-dated spread is priced through all of them; none of them is the trade.", "The Poor Man's Covered Call's max profit below is the conservative case — assigned on the very first short call. Rolling that short leg out each month is where the structure actually earns, and no figure here counts those rolls.", "The short legs can be assigned early — most often a short call the day before an ex-dividend date. Know the dividend calendar before you sell one." ] }, "screen": { "compliant": true, "industry_ok": true, "industry": "Semiconductor Equipment & Materials", "debt_ratio": 0.020277733481397314, "cash_ratio": 0.025486567598753968, "receivables_ratio": null, "reasons": [ "ok" ] } }, { "rank": 16, "ticker": "AMD", "price": 516.13, "score": 63.6, "squeeze_on": false, "squeeze_days": 0, "squeeze_fired": false, "fired_dir": "", "bandwidth_pctile": 0.317, "hv_annual": 50.7, "hv_pctile": 0.125, "em_pct": 10.11, "horizon_days": 10, "down_1sigma": 463.95, "up_1sigma": 568.31, "down_2sigma": 411.78, "up_2sigma": 620.48, "lean": "Bullish", "note": "", "debt_ratio": 0.005074953170409599, "cash_ratio": 0.015560736983638272, "earnings_in_days": 52, "implied_move_pct": null, "vol_verdict": null, "iv_annual": null, "iv_rank": null, "premium_score": null, "premium_state": null, "liquidity": null, "action": "NO_DATA", "strategy": "Not priced", "options": null, "recommendation": { "ticker": "AMD", "action": "NO_DATA", "headline": "AMD: not priced — no IV read this run", "detail": "No option chain was priced for this ticker in this run (only the top-ranked names are priced).", "confidence": 0.0, "premium_state": "unknown", "premium_score": null, "bias": "bullish", "bias_strength": "weak", "plan": { "key": "no_data", "name": "Not priced", "action": "NO_DATA", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "No option chain was priced for this ticker in this run (only the top-ranked names are priced).", "playbook": "No usable option chain this run — nothing to price.", "vega": "flat", "theta": "flat", "risk": "none", "legs": [], "expiry": null, "dte": null, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": null, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": null, "breakevens": [], "profit_zone": "", "pop": null, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": {}, "sizing": {}, "risk_form": { "tier": "n/a", "note": "No position — nothing to secure." } }, "alternatives": [], "avoid": [], "why": [ "Setup score 64/100 from price action alone — no implied-volatility read, so no premium call can be made." ], "warnings": [ "Without IV there is no way to say whether options here are cheap or rich. Raise `options.top_n` in the config to price more names." ] }, "long_dated": null, "screen": { "compliant": true, "industry_ok": true, "industry": "Semiconductors", "debt_ratio": 0.005074953170409599, "cash_ratio": 0.015560736983638272, "receivables_ratio": null, "reasons": [ "ok" ] } }, { "rank": 17, "ticker": "KO", "price": 88.29, "score": 57.3, "squeeze_on": false, "squeeze_days": 0, "squeeze_fired": false, "fired_dir": "", "bandwidth_pctile": 0.258, "hv_annual": 15.3, "hv_pctile": 0.283, "em_pct": 3.05, "horizon_days": 10, "down_1sigma": 85.59, "up_1sigma": 90.99, "down_2sigma": 82.9, "up_2sigma": 93.68, "lean": "Bearish", "note": "", "debt_ratio": 0.11651554524261878, "cash_ratio": 0.043096090560715616, "earnings_in_days": 38, "implied_move_pct": null, "vol_verdict": null, "iv_annual": null, "iv_rank": null, "premium_score": null, "premium_state": null, "liquidity": null, "action": "NO_DATA", "strategy": "Not priced", "options": null, "recommendation": { "ticker": "KO", "action": "NO_DATA", "headline": "KO: not priced — no IV read this run", "detail": "No option chain was priced for this ticker in this run (only the top-ranked names are priced).", "confidence": 0.0, "premium_state": "unknown", "premium_score": null, "bias": "bearish", "bias_strength": "weak", "plan": { "key": "no_data", "name": "Not priced", "action": "NO_DATA", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "No option chain was priced for this ticker in this run (only the top-ranked names are priced).", "playbook": "No usable option chain this run — nothing to price.", "vega": "flat", "theta": "flat", "risk": "none", "legs": [], "expiry": null, "dte": null, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": null, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": null, "breakevens": [], "profit_zone": "", "pop": null, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": {}, "sizing": {}, "risk_form": { "tier": "n/a", "note": "No position — nothing to secure." } }, "alternatives": [], "avoid": [], "why": [ "Setup score 57/100 from price action alone — no implied-volatility read, so no premium call can be made." ], "warnings": [ "Without IV there is no way to say whether options here are cheap or rich. Raise `options.top_n` in the config to price more names." ] }, "long_dated": null, "screen": { "compliant": true, "industry_ok": true, "industry": "Beverages - Non-Alcoholic", "debt_ratio": 0.11651554524261878, "cash_ratio": 0.043096090560715616, "receivables_ratio": null, "reasons": [ "ok" ] } }, { "rank": 18, "ticker": "HD", "price": 308.74, "score": 55.9, "squeeze_on": false, "squeeze_days": 0, "squeeze_fired": false, "fired_dir": "", "bandwidth_pctile": 0.767, "hv_annual": 20.0, "hv_pctile": 0.017, "em_pct": 3.98, "horizon_days": 10, "down_1sigma": 296.46, "up_1sigma": 321.02, "down_2sigma": 284.18, "up_2sigma": 333.3, "lean": "Bearish", "note": "", "debt_ratio": 0.20513808282096987, "cash_ratio": 0.006768894162726692, "earnings_in_days": 66, "implied_move_pct": null, "vol_verdict": null, "iv_annual": null, "iv_rank": null, "premium_score": null, "premium_state": null, "liquidity": null, "action": "NO_DATA", "strategy": "Not priced", "options": null, "recommendation": { "ticker": "HD", "action": "NO_DATA", "headline": "HD: not priced — no IV read this run", "detail": "No option chain was priced for this ticker in this run (only the top-ranked names are priced).", "confidence": 0.0, "premium_state": "unknown", "premium_score": null, "bias": "bearish", "bias_strength": "weak", "plan": { "key": "no_data", "name": "Not priced", "action": "NO_DATA", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "No option chain was priced for this ticker in this run (only the top-ranked names are priced).", "playbook": "No usable option chain this run — nothing to price.", "vega": "flat", "theta": "flat", "risk": "none", "legs": [], "expiry": null, "dte": null, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": null, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": null, "breakevens": [], "profit_zone": "", "pop": null, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": {}, "sizing": {}, "risk_form": { "tier": "n/a", "note": "No position — nothing to secure." } }, "alternatives": [], "avoid": [], "why": [ "Setup score 56/100 from price action alone — no implied-volatility read, so no premium call can be made." ], "warnings": [ "Without IV there is no way to say whether options here are cheap or rich. Raise `options.top_n` in the config to price more names." ] }, "long_dated": null, "screen": { "compliant": true, "industry_ok": true, "industry": "Home Improvement Retail", "debt_ratio": 0.20513808282096987, "cash_ratio": 0.006768894162726692, "receivables_ratio": null, "reasons": [ "ok" ] } }, { "rank": 19, "ticker": "GEV", "price": 957.27, "score": 54.9, "squeeze_on": false, "squeeze_days": 0, "squeeze_fired": false, "fired_dir": "", "bandwidth_pctile": 0.5, "hv_annual": 42.1, "hv_pctile": 0.192, "em_pct": 8.39, "horizon_days": 10, "down_1sigma": 876.94, "up_1sigma": 1037.6, "down_2sigma": 796.61, "up_2sigma": 1117.93, "lean": "Bearish", "note": "", "debt_ratio": 0.014590915404727659, "cash_ratio": 0.04989151719035909, "earnings_in_days": 46, "implied_move_pct": null, "vol_verdict": null, "iv_annual": null, "iv_rank": null, "premium_score": null, "premium_state": null, "liquidity": null, "action": "NO_DATA", "strategy": "Not priced", "options": null, "recommendation": { "ticker": "GEV", "action": "NO_DATA", "headline": "GEV: not priced — no IV read this run", "detail": "No option chain was priced for this ticker in this run (only the top-ranked names are priced).", "confidence": 0.0, "premium_state": "unknown", "premium_score": null, "bias": "bearish", "bias_strength": "weak", "plan": { "key": "no_data", "name": "Not priced", "action": "NO_DATA", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "No option chain was priced for this ticker in this run (only the top-ranked names are priced).", "playbook": "No usable option chain this run — nothing to price.", "vega": "flat", "theta": "flat", "risk": "none", "legs": [], "expiry": null, "dte": null, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": null, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": null, "breakevens": [], "profit_zone": "", "pop": null, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": {}, "sizing": {}, "risk_form": { "tier": "n/a", "note": "No position — nothing to secure." } }, "alternatives": [], "avoid": [], "why": [ "Setup score 55/100 from price action alone — no implied-volatility read, so no premium call can be made." ], "warnings": [ "Without IV there is no way to say whether options here are cheap or rich. Raise `options.top_n` in the config to price more names." ] }, "long_dated": null, "screen": { "compliant": true, "industry_ok": true, "industry": "Specialty Industrial Machinery", "debt_ratio": 0.014590915404727659, "cash_ratio": 0.04989151719035909, "receivables_ratio": null, "reasons": [ "ok" ] } }, { "rank": 20, "ticker": "LLY", "price": 1115.7, "score": 53.8, "squeeze_on": false, "squeeze_days": 0, "squeeze_fired": false, "fired_dir": "", "bandwidth_pctile": 0.667, "hv_annual": 29.1, "hv_pctile": 0.117, "em_pct": 5.8, "horizon_days": 10, "down_1sigma": 1050.94, "up_1sigma": 1180.46, "down_2sigma": 986.17, "up_2sigma": 1245.23, "lean": "Bearish", "note": "", "debt_ratio": 0.055188589216538075, "cash_ratio": 0.008995735929481247, "earnings_in_days": 47, "implied_move_pct": null, "vol_verdict": null, "iv_annual": null, "iv_rank": null, "premium_score": null, "premium_state": null, "liquidity": null, "action": "NO_DATA", "strategy": "Not priced", "options": null, "recommendation": { "ticker": "LLY", "action": "NO_DATA", "headline": "LLY: not priced — no IV read this run", "detail": "No option chain was priced for this ticker in this run (only the top-ranked names are priced).", "confidence": 0.0, "premium_state": "unknown", "premium_score": null, "bias": "bearish", "bias_strength": "weak", "plan": { "key": "no_data", "name": "Not priced", "action": "NO_DATA", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "No option chain was priced for this ticker in this run (only the top-ranked names are priced).", "playbook": "No usable option chain this run — nothing to price.", "vega": "flat", "theta": "flat", "risk": "none", "legs": [], "expiry": null, "dte": null, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": null, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": null, "breakevens": [], "profit_zone": "", "pop": null, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": {}, "sizing": {}, "risk_form": { "tier": "n/a", "note": "No position — nothing to secure." } }, "alternatives": [], "avoid": [], "why": [ "Setup score 54/100 from price action alone — no implied-volatility read, so no premium call can be made." ], "warnings": [ "Without IV there is no way to say whether options here are cheap or rich. Raise `options.top_n` in the config to price more names." ] }, "long_dated": null, "screen": { "compliant": true, "industry_ok": true, "industry": "Drug Manufacturers - General", "debt_ratio": 0.055188589216538075, "cash_ratio": 0.008995735929481247, "receivables_ratio": null, "reasons": [ "ok" ] } }, { "rank": 21, "ticker": "ABBV", "price": 257.12, "score": 53.1, "squeeze_on": false, "squeeze_days": 0, "squeeze_fired": false, "fired_dir": "", "bandwidth_pctile": 0.217, "hv_annual": 24.2, "hv_pctile": 0.392, "em_pct": 4.83, "horizon_days": 10, "down_1sigma": 244.7, "up_1sigma": 269.54, "down_2sigma": 232.29, "up_2sigma": 281.95, "lean": "Bearish", "note": "", "debt_ratio": 0.15601024318255233, "cash_ratio": 0.01445766085222973, "earnings_in_days": 47, "implied_move_pct": null, "vol_verdict": null, "iv_annual": null, "iv_rank": null, "premium_score": null, "premium_state": null, "liquidity": null, "action": "NO_DATA", "strategy": "Not priced", "options": null, "recommendation": { "ticker": "ABBV", "action": "NO_DATA", "headline": "ABBV: not priced — no IV read this run", "detail": "No option chain was priced for this ticker in this run (only the top-ranked names are priced).", "confidence": 0.0, "premium_state": "unknown", "premium_score": null, "bias": "bearish", "bias_strength": "weak", "plan": { "key": "no_data", "name": "Not priced", "action": "NO_DATA", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "No option chain was priced for this ticker in this run (only the top-ranked names are priced).", "playbook": "No usable option chain this run — nothing to price.", "vega": "flat", "theta": "flat", "risk": "none", "legs": [], "expiry": null, "dte": null, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": null, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": null, "breakevens": [], "profit_zone": "", "pop": null, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": {}, "sizing": {}, "risk_form": { "tier": "n/a", "note": "No position — nothing to secure." } }, "alternatives": [], "avoid": [], "why": [ "Setup score 53/100 from price action alone — no implied-volatility read, so no premium call can be made." ], "warnings": [ "Without IV there is no way to say whether options here are cheap or rich. Raise `options.top_n` in the config to price more names." ] }, "long_dated": null, "screen": { "compliant": true, "industry_ok": true, "industry": "Drug Manufacturers - General", "debt_ratio": 0.15601024318255233, "cash_ratio": 0.01445766085222973, "receivables_ratio": null, "reasons": [ "ok" ] } }, { "rank": 22, "ticker": "AAPL", "price": 332.27, "score": 50.6, "squeeze_on": false, "squeeze_days": 0, "squeeze_fired": false, "fired_dir": "", "bandwidth_pctile": 0.275, "hv_annual": 23.1, "hv_pctile": 0.408, "em_pct": 4.61, "horizon_days": 10, "down_1sigma": 316.95, "up_1sigma": 347.59, "down_2sigma": 301.63, "up_2sigma": 362.91, "lean": "Bullish", "note": "", "debt_ratio": 0.01739335551019393, "cash_ratio": 0.0128678749717541, "earnings_in_days": 47, "implied_move_pct": null, "vol_verdict": null, "iv_annual": null, "iv_rank": null, "premium_score": null, "premium_state": null, "liquidity": null, "action": "NO_DATA", "strategy": "Not priced", "options": null, "recommendation": { "ticker": "AAPL", "action": "NO_DATA", "headline": "AAPL: not priced — no IV read this run", "detail": "No option chain was priced for this ticker in this run (only the top-ranked names are priced).", "confidence": 0.0, "premium_state": "unknown", "premium_score": null, "bias": "bullish", "bias_strength": "weak", "plan": { "key": "no_data", "name": "Not priced", "action": "NO_DATA", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "No option chain was priced for this ticker in this run (only the top-ranked names are priced).", "playbook": "No usable option chain this run — nothing to price.", "vega": "flat", "theta": "flat", "risk": "none", "legs": [], "expiry": null, "dte": null, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": null, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": null, "breakevens": [], "profit_zone": "", "pop": null, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": {}, "sizing": {}, "risk_form": { "tier": "n/a", "note": "No position — nothing to secure." } }, "alternatives": [], "avoid": [], "why": [ "Setup score 51/100 from price action alone — no implied-volatility read, so no premium call can be made." ], "warnings": [ "Without IV there is no way to say whether options here are cheap or rich. Raise `options.top_n` in the config to price more names." ] }, "long_dated": null, "screen": { "compliant": true, "industry_ok": true, "industry": "Consumer Electronics", "debt_ratio": 0.01739335551019393, "cash_ratio": 0.0128678749717541, "receivables_ratio": null, "reasons": [ "ok" ] } }, { "rank": 23, "ticker": "META", "price": 648.03, "score": 49.1, "squeeze_on": false, "squeeze_days": 0, "squeeze_fired": false, "fired_dir": "", "bandwidth_pctile": 0.7, "hv_annual": 35.9, "hv_pctile": 0.192, "em_pct": 7.15, "horizon_days": 10, "down_1sigma": 601.7, "up_1sigma": 694.36, "down_2sigma": 555.37, "up_2sigma": 740.69, "lean": "Bullish", "note": "", "debt_ratio": 0.06803603192710542, "cash_ratio": 0.05467451500452637, "earnings_in_days": 46, "implied_move_pct": null, "vol_verdict": null, "iv_annual": null, "iv_rank": null, "premium_score": null, "premium_state": null, "liquidity": null, "action": "NO_DATA", "strategy": "Not priced", "options": null, "recommendation": { "ticker": "META", "action": "NO_DATA", "headline": "META: not priced — no IV read this run", "detail": "No option chain was priced for this ticker in this run (only the top-ranked names are priced).", "confidence": 0.0, "premium_state": "unknown", "premium_score": null, "bias": "bullish", "bias_strength": "weak", "plan": { "key": "no_data", "name": "Not priced", "action": "NO_DATA", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "No option chain was priced for this ticker in this run (only the top-ranked names are priced).", "playbook": "No usable option chain this run — nothing to price.", "vega": "flat", "theta": "flat", "risk": "none", "legs": [], "expiry": null, "dte": null, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": null, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": null, "breakevens": [], "profit_zone": "", "pop": null, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": {}, "sizing": {}, "risk_form": { "tier": "n/a", "note": "No position — nothing to secure." } }, "alternatives": [], "avoid": [], "why": [ "Setup score 49/100 from price action alone — no implied-volatility read, so no premium call can be made." ], "warnings": [ "Without IV there is no way to say whether options here are cheap or rich. Raise `options.top_n` in the config to price more names." ] }, "long_dated": null, "screen": { "compliant": true, "industry_ok": true, "industry": "Internet Content & Information", "debt_ratio": 0.06803603192710542, "cash_ratio": 0.05467451500452637, "receivables_ratio": null, "reasons": [ "ok" ] } }, { "rank": 24, "ticker": "TSLA", "price": 365.44, "score": 45.9, "squeeze_on": false, "squeeze_days": 0, "squeeze_fired": false, "fired_dir": "", "bandwidth_pctile": 0.05, "hv_annual": 49.2, "hv_pctile": 0.633, "em_pct": 9.81, "horizon_days": 10, "down_1sigma": 329.59, "up_1sigma": 401.29, "down_2sigma": 293.75, "up_2sigma": 437.13, "lean": "Bullish", "note": "", "debt_ratio": 0.01114095999379023, "cash_ratio": 0.030155420568055112, "earnings_in_days": 39, "implied_move_pct": null, "vol_verdict": null, "iv_annual": null, "iv_rank": null, "premium_score": null, "premium_state": null, "liquidity": null, "action": "NO_DATA", "strategy": "Not priced", "options": null, "recommendation": { "ticker": "TSLA", "action": "NO_DATA", "headline": "TSLA: not priced — no IV read this run", "detail": "No option chain was priced for this ticker in this run (only the top-ranked names are priced).", "confidence": 0.0, "premium_state": "unknown", "premium_score": null, "bias": "bullish", "bias_strength": "weak", "plan": { "key": "no_data", "name": "Not priced", "action": "NO_DATA", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "No option chain was priced for this ticker in this run (only the top-ranked names are priced).", "playbook": "No usable option chain this run — nothing to price.", "vega": "flat", "theta": "flat", "risk": "none", "legs": [], "expiry": null, "dte": null, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": null, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": null, "breakevens": [], "profit_zone": "", "pop": null, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": {}, "sizing": {}, "risk_form": { "tier": "n/a", "note": "No position — nothing to secure." } }, "alternatives": [], "avoid": [], "why": [ "Setup score 46/100 from price action alone — no implied-volatility read, so no premium call can be made." ], "warnings": [ "Without IV there is no way to say whether options here are cheap or rich. Raise `options.top_n` in the config to price more names." ] }, "long_dated": null, "screen": { "compliant": true, "industry_ok": true, "industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "debt_ratio": 0.01114095999379023, "cash_ratio": 0.030155420568055112, "receivables_ratio": null, "reasons": [ "ok" ] } }, { "rank": 25, "ticker": "NVDA", "price": 218.29, "score": 39.9, "squeeze_on": false, "squeeze_days": 0, "squeeze_fired": false, "fired_dir": "", "bandwidth_pctile": 0.083, "hv_annual": 42.6, "hv_pctile": 0.733, "em_pct": 8.48, "horizon_days": 10, "down_1sigma": 199.78, "up_1sigma": 236.8, "down_2sigma": 181.26, "up_2sigma": 255.32, "lean": "Neutral", "note": "", "debt_ratio": 0.007372347619196344, "cash_ratio": 0.01185134269734, "earnings_in_days": 66, "implied_move_pct": null, "vol_verdict": null, "iv_annual": null, "iv_rank": null, "premium_score": null, "premium_state": null, "liquidity": null, "action": "NO_DATA", "strategy": "Not priced", "options": null, "recommendation": { "ticker": "NVDA", "action": "NO_DATA", "headline": "NVDA: not priced — no IV read this run", "detail": "No option chain was priced for this ticker in this run (only the top-ranked names are priced).", "confidence": 0.0, "premium_state": "unknown", "premium_score": null, "bias": "neutral", "bias_strength": "none", "plan": { "key": "no_data", "name": "Not priced", "action": "NO_DATA", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "No option chain was priced for this ticker in this run (only the top-ranked names are priced).", "playbook": "No usable option chain this run — nothing to price.", "vega": "flat", "theta": "flat", "risk": "none", "legs": [], "expiry": null, "dte": null, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": null, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": null, "breakevens": [], "profit_zone": "", "pop": null, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": {}, "sizing": {}, "risk_form": { "tier": "n/a", "note": "No position — nothing to secure." } }, "alternatives": [], "avoid": [], "why": [ "Setup score 40/100 from price action alone — no implied-volatility read, so no premium call can be made." ], "warnings": [ "Without IV there is no way to say whether options here are cheap or rich. Raise `options.top_n` in the config to price more names." ] }, "long_dated": null, "screen": { "compliant": true, "industry_ok": true, "industry": "Semiconductors", "debt_ratio": 0.007372347619196344, "cash_ratio": 0.01185134269734, "receivables_ratio": null, "reasons": [ "ok" ] } }, { "rank": 26, "ticker": "JNJ", "price": 265.58, "score": 33.7, "squeeze_on": false, "squeeze_days": 0, "squeeze_fired": false, "fired_dir": "", "bandwidth_pctile": 0.342, "hv_annual": 22.3, "hv_pctile": 0.708, "em_pct": 4.45, "horizon_days": 10, "down_1sigma": 253.76, "up_1sigma": 277.4, "down_2sigma": 241.94, "up_2sigma": 289.22, "lean": "Neutral", "note": "", "debt_ratio": 0.07661625712949584, "cash_ratio": 0.032433318267370594, "earnings_in_days": 31, "implied_move_pct": null, "vol_verdict": null, "iv_annual": null, "iv_rank": null, "premium_score": null, "premium_state": null, "liquidity": null, "action": "NO_DATA", "strategy": "Not priced", "options": null, "recommendation": { "ticker": "JNJ", "action": "NO_DATA", "headline": "JNJ: not priced — no IV read this run", "detail": "No option chain was priced for this ticker in this run (only the top-ranked names are priced).", "confidence": 0.0, "premium_state": "unknown", "premium_score": null, "bias": "neutral", "bias_strength": "none", "plan": { "key": "no_data", "name": "Not priced", "action": "NO_DATA", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "No option chain was priced for this ticker in this run (only the top-ranked names are priced).", "playbook": "No usable option chain this run — nothing to price.", "vega": "flat", "theta": "flat", "risk": "none", "legs": [], "expiry": null, "dte": null, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": null, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": null, "breakevens": [], "profit_zone": "", "pop": null, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": {}, "sizing": {}, "risk_form": { "tier": "n/a", "note": "No position — nothing to secure." } }, "alternatives": [], "avoid": [], "why": [ "Setup score 34/100 from price action alone — no implied-volatility read, so no premium call can be made." ], "warnings": [ "Without IV there is no way to say whether options here are cheap or rich. Raise `options.top_n` in the config to price more names." ] }, "long_dated": null, "screen": { "compliant": true, "industry_ok": true, "industry": "Drug Manufacturers - General", "debt_ratio": 0.07661625712949584, "cash_ratio": 0.032433318267370594, "receivables_ratio": null, "reasons": [ "ok" ] } }, { "rank": 27, "ticker": "CRWD", "price": 206.74, "score": 19.4, "squeeze_on": false, "squeeze_days": 0, "squeeze_fired": false, "fired_dir": "", "bandwidth_pctile": 0.417, "hv_annual": 87.3, "hv_pctile": 0.95, "em_pct": 17.39, "horizon_days": 10, "down_1sigma": 170.78, "up_1sigma": 242.7, "down_2sigma": 134.83, "up_2sigma": 278.65, "lean": "Neutral", "note": "", "debt_ratio": 0.0038744656064218616, "cash_ratio": 0.02368504646285711, "earnings_in_days": 80, "implied_move_pct": null, "vol_verdict": null, "iv_annual": null, "iv_rank": null, "premium_score": null, "premium_state": null, "liquidity": null, "action": "NO_DATA", "strategy": "Not priced", "options": null, "recommendation": { "ticker": "CRWD", "action": "NO_DATA", "headline": "CRWD: not priced — no IV read this run", "detail": "No option chain was priced for this ticker in this run (only the top-ranked names are priced).", "confidence": 0.0, "premium_state": "unknown", "premium_score": null, "bias": "neutral", "bias_strength": "none", "plan": { "key": "no_data", "name": "Not priced", "action": "NO_DATA", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "No option chain was priced for this ticker in this run (only the top-ranked names are priced).", "playbook": "No usable option chain this run — nothing to price.", "vega": "flat", "theta": "flat", "risk": "none", "legs": [], "expiry": null, "dte": null, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": null, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": null, "breakevens": [], "profit_zone": "", "pop": null, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": {}, "sizing": {}, "risk_form": { "tier": "n/a", "note": "No position — nothing to secure." } }, "alternatives": [], "avoid": [], "why": [ "Setup score 19/100 from price action alone — no implied-volatility read, so no premium call can be made." ], "warnings": [ "Without IV there is no way to say whether options here are cheap or rich. Raise `options.top_n` in the config to price more names." ] }, "long_dated": null, "screen": { "compliant": true, "industry_ok": true, "industry": "Software - Infrastructure", "debt_ratio": 0.0038744656064218616, "cash_ratio": 0.02368504646285711, "receivables_ratio": null, "reasons": [ "ok" ] } }, { "rank": 28, "ticker": "PANW", "price": 330.65, "score": 17.5, "squeeze_on": false, "squeeze_days": 0, "squeeze_fired": false, "fired_dir": "", "bandwidth_pctile": 0.483, "hv_annual": 65.2, "hv_pctile": 0.95, "em_pct": 12.98, "horizon_days": 10, "down_1sigma": 287.74, "up_1sigma": 373.56, "down_2sigma": 244.82, "up_2sigma": 416.48, "lean": "Bearish", "note": "", "debt_ratio": 0.0092771352890592, "cash_ratio": 0.011396033226574986, "earnings_in_days": 68, "implied_move_pct": null, "vol_verdict": null, "iv_annual": null, "iv_rank": null, "premium_score": null, "premium_state": null, "liquidity": null, "action": "NO_DATA", "strategy": "Not priced", "options": null, "recommendation": { "ticker": "PANW", "action": "NO_DATA", "headline": "PANW: not priced — no IV read this run", "detail": "No option chain was priced for this ticker in this run (only the top-ranked names are priced).", "confidence": 0.0, "premium_state": "unknown", "premium_score": null, "bias": "bearish", "bias_strength": "weak", "plan": { "key": "no_data", "name": "Not priced", "action": "NO_DATA", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "No option chain was priced for this ticker in this run (only the top-ranked names are priced).", "playbook": "No usable option chain this run — nothing to price.", "vega": "flat", "theta": "flat", "risk": "none", "legs": [], "expiry": null, "dte": null, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": null, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": null, "breakevens": [], "profit_zone": "", "pop": null, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": {}, "sizing": {}, "risk_form": { "tier": "n/a", "note": "No position — nothing to secure." } }, "alternatives": [], "avoid": [], "why": [ "Setup score 18/100 from price action alone — no implied-volatility read, so no premium call can be made." ], "warnings": [ "Without IV there is no way to say whether options here are cheap or rich. Raise `options.top_n` in the config to price more names." ] }, "long_dated": null, "screen": { "compliant": true, "industry_ok": true, "industry": "Software - Infrastructure", "debt_ratio": 0.0092771352890592, "cash_ratio": 0.011396033226574986, "receivables_ratio": null, "reasons": [ "ok" ] } }, { "rank": 29, "ticker": "MRK", "price": 143.93, "score": 6.9, "squeeze_on": false, "squeeze_days": 0, "squeeze_fired": false, "fired_dir": "", "bandwidth_pctile": 0.775, "hv_annual": 48.6, "hv_pctile": 0.992, "em_pct": 9.69, "horizon_days": 10, "down_1sigma": 129.99, "up_1sigma": 157.87, "down_2sigma": 116.05, "up_2sigma": 171.81, "lean": "Neutral", "note": "", "debt_ratio": 0.15181920304459107, "cash_ratio": 0.020109828743598658, "earnings_in_days": 47, "implied_move_pct": null, "vol_verdict": null, "iv_annual": null, "iv_rank": null, "premium_score": null, "premium_state": null, "liquidity": null, "action": "NO_DATA", "strategy": "Not priced", "options": null, "recommendation": { "ticker": "MRK", "action": "NO_DATA", "headline": "MRK: not priced — no IV read this run", "detail": "No option chain was priced for this ticker in this run (only the top-ranked names are priced).", "confidence": 0.0, "premium_state": "unknown", "premium_score": null, "bias": "neutral", "bias_strength": "none", "plan": { "key": "no_data", "name": "Not priced", "action": "NO_DATA", "bias": "neutral", "thesis": "No option chain was priced for this ticker in this run (only the top-ranked names are priced).", "playbook": "No usable option chain this run — nothing to price.", "vega": "flat", "theta": "flat", "risk": "none", "legs": [], "expiry": null, "dte": null, "profit_horizon_dte": null, "net": null, "max_profit": null, "max_loss": null, "breakevens": [], "profit_zone": "", "pop": null, "credit_to_width": null, "manage": {}, "sizing": {}, "risk_form": { "tier": "n/a", "note": "No position — nothing to secure." } }, "alternatives": [], "avoid": [], "why": [ "Setup score 7/100 from price action alone — no implied-volatility read, so no premium call can be made." ], "warnings": [ "Without IV there is no way to say whether options here are cheap or rich. Raise `options.top_n` in the config to price more names." ] }, "long_dated": null, "screen": { "compliant": true, "industry_ok": true, "industry": "Drug Manufacturers - General", "debt_ratio": 0.15181920304459107, "cash_ratio": 0.020109828743598658, "receivables_ratio": null, "reasons": [ "ok" ] } } ] }